Primate conservation in Brazil 807
TABLE 2 Area predicted to be suitable for the target species (km2), considering current conditions, and future (2070) conditions moderate (RCP 4.5) and severe (RCP 8.5) climate change emission scenarios, and including their geographical range and future range loss.
Species A. belzebul S. flavius S. libidinosus Range Atlantic Forest, Amazon forest Current Atlantic Forest Caatinga, Cerrado
Distribution models Area predicted to be suitable (km2) Range loss (%) 671,135
Future moderate Future severe Current
Future moderate Future severe Current
Future moderate Future severe
131,792 40,607 47,184 10,331 1,102
1,059,360 726,892 486,616
80.36 93.94
78.00 97.66
31.38 54.00
FIG. 2 Predicted current distribution of suitable areas for the occurrence of (a) A. belzebul, (b) S. flavius and (c) S. libidinosus. Suitability ranges from low (0)to high (1).
current predictive distribution with their priority areas and forest cover are detailed in Supplementary Figs 2 and 3, respectively. To identify relevant areas for the expansion or creation of
protected areas, and potential connectivity between suitable areas, we overlapped government priority areas and pro- tected areas with our modelled suitable areas. We found that 96, 99 and 74% of the government priority areas with- in A. belzebul, S. flavius and S. libidinosus suitability areas, respectively, are outside protected areas (Supplementary Table 4). Our analysis showed that 23%(93), 11%(43) and 73%
(295) of protected areas will maintain climatic suitability under the moderate future climate change scenario for A. belzebul, S. flavius and S. libidinosus, respectively. These num- bers decrease to 12%(50), 3%(13)and 67%(270)whenwecon- sider the more severe future scenario (see Supplementary Table 5 for a list of protected areas). Of all the protected areas identified as climatically suitable for the three primate species under present and future conditions, 14%(56)overlap with human settlements. For S. flavius, in particular, 33%of climatically suitable protected areas overlap with human settlements (Supplementary Table 5). We also identified that 18%(91), 2%(12) and 88%(441) of government priority areas will remain climatically suitable under the moderate future climate change scenario for A. belzebul, S. flavius and S. libidinosus, respectively. These numbers decrease to 5%(25), 0.4%(2) and 61%(357) when we consider the more severe future scenario (see Supplementary Table 4 for a list
of government priority areas and conservation actions for each area).
Discussion
Our findings indicate concern for the future of A. belzebul, S. flavius and S. libidinosus,as 88% of the areas predicted to be suitable for these species are unprotected. The remaining 12% of the suitable areas fall within protected areas, but 72% of these have low protection status. Only 27% of the overall areas predicted to be suitable for the three species overlap with priority areas for conservation, and only 24% are cur- rently forested. Future models predict a near total loss of climatic suitability for the three species in tropical forests (Amazon and/or Atlantic Forest) and loss of a quarter of suitable areas in the semiarid regions (Caatinga and Cer- rado). Our models were able to distinguish between the habitats
of the three species. We found that habitat suitability is affected by geomorphology, annual precipitation and eco- region, which together influence vegetation structure and composition (Shi-kui et al., 2019). Characteristics such as temperature variation and deciduous and semideciduous vegetation differentiate the species’ habitat needs from those of other primates (Ratter et al., 1997; Prado, 2003). Water availability and changes in soil composition also play an important role by controlling the type of vegetation that can grow in different landscapes (El-Keblawy et al., 2015; Cowles et al., 2018).
Oryx, 2020, 54(6), 803–813 © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605319001388
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