Habitat suitability for primate conservation in north-east Brazil


BÁRBARA MORAES,ORL Y RAZGOUR,JOÃO P EDRO SOUZA-ALV E S JEAN P. BOUBL I and BRUNA BEZERRA


Abstract Brazil has a high diversity of primates, but in- creasing anthropogenic pressures and climate change could influence forest cover in the country and cause fu- ture changes in the distribution of primate populations. Here we aim to assess the long-term suitability of habitats for the conservation of three threatened Brazilian primates (Alouatta belzebul, Sapajus flavius and Sapajus libidinosus) through (1) estimating their current and future distributions using species distribution models, (2) evaluating how much of the areas projected to be suitable is represented within protected areas and priority areas for biodiversity conser- vation, and (3) assessing the extent of remaining forest cov- er in areas predicted to be suitable for these species. We found that 88% of the suitable areas are outside protected areas and only 24% are located in areas with forest cover. Although not within protected areas, 27%of the climatically suitable areas are considered priority areas for conserva- tion. Future projections, considering a severe climate change scenario, indicate that A. belzebul, S. flavius and S. libidi- nosus may lose up to 94, 98 and 54% of their suitable range, respectively. The establishment of primate popula- tions and their long-term survival in these areas are at risk. Mitigation actions such as the implementation of new protected areas, forest restoration and reduction of green- house gas emissions will be essential for the conservation of Brazilian primates.


Keywords Brazil, climate change, future range shift, gap analysis, primates, priority areas, protected areas, species distribution models


Supplementary material for this article is available at doi.org/10.1017/S0030605319001388


Introduction B


razil is home to 115 species of non-human primates (Estrada et al., 2017; Costa-Araújo et al., 2019; IUCN,


BÁRBARA MORAES (Corresponding author, JOÃO PEDRO SOUZA-ALVES ( BEZERRA (


orcid.org/0000-0002-1804-9828), orcid.org/0000-0002-8517-1276) and BRUNA orcid.org/0000-0003-3039-121X) Programa de Pós-Graduação


em Biologia Animal, Departamento de Zoologia, Centro de Biociências, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Av. Prof. Moraes Rego, 1235 Cidade Universitária, Recife PE, 50670-901, Brazil E-mail barbaralcm151@gmail.com


ORLY RAZGOUR*( orcid.org/0000-0003-3186-0313) Biosciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK


JEAN BOUBLI ( orcid.org/0000-0002-5833-9264) School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford, Salford, UK


*Also at: Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK


Received 18 May 2019. Revision requested 16 July 2019. Accepted 11 November 2019. First published online 28 September 2020. Oryx, 2020, 54(6), 803–813 © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605319001388


2019), of which 21 occur in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado and Caatinga biomes in the north-east. These three biomes have been extensively modified by centuries of anthropo- genic forest destruction for the development of agriculture, infrastructure and urban areas. Primate populations are in sharp decline, including the most charismatic, elusive and rare species. Half of the primate species in north-east Brazil are under threat, including five species categorized as Endangered and five categorized as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (IUCN, 2020). Although much attention has been, rightfully, devoted to the plight of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, there has been little focus on theCerrado and Caatinga.The Caatinga in par- ticular has been neglected in terms of conservation action, although nearly half has already been lost (Beuchle et al., 2015). It is predicted that the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado and Caatinga biomes will be severely affected in the future by con- tinuing anthropogenic impacts in these rapidly developing areas, and by climate change (Marengo et al., 2017). Thus it is important to determine which areas will be more severely affected and where new protected areas are required to create an effective network of protected areas that supports the fu- ture survival of primates in these biomes (Estrada et al., 2018). In 2011 the Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade, the national institution for biodiversity con- servation in Brazil, developed a conservation action plan for the primates of north-east Brazil (ICMBio-CPB, 2018). Six of the 21 primate species in the area were included in this conservation action plan: the red-handed howler monkey Alouatta belzebul, Caatinga howler monkey Alouatta ul- ulata, blonde titi monkey Callicebus barbarabrownae, Coimbra-Filho’s titi monkey Callicebus coimbrai, blonde capuchin Sapajus flavius and yellow-breasted capuchin Sapajus xanthosternos. These species occur in one or more of the three biomes occurring in north-east Brazil, the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado and Caatinga. The main threats to these primates are habitat destruction and fragmentation, hunting and the pet trade (ICMBio, 2016; ICMBio-CPB, 2018). One of the actions proposed in the conservation action plan is to determine more accurately the current distribution of all six species and to evaluate how these dis- tributions will be affected by future human activities and climate change (ICMBio-CPB, 2018). Such data are essential


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