Megatrends, Emerging Issues and Outlooks
The region still needs strong environmental policy measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to achieve a low- carbon economy by 2050. The World Energy Council reported that investments in renewable energy supply in developing countries were USD131 billion in 2014 compared to USD139 billion in developed countries, with China investing USD83.3 billion (World Energy Council 2015). Although China has quickly expanded renewable energy recently, more effective energy efficiency and renewable energy policies in the region are still needed.
The Asia and the Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) has investigated leapfrogging and transformative pathways to promote low-carbon development in the region using quantitative methods with a reduction target of 50 per cent in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 from the 1990 level (Figure 4.5.1), using both bottom-up (AIM/Enduse) (Japan, NIES 2013) and top-down (AIM/CGE) (Japan, NIES 2012) approaches as modelled by the Asia and the Pacific Research Network (Japan, NIES 2014a). Several related locally tailored scenarios and policy roadmaps towards low- carbon development have been elaborated at the national level, for example in China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Thailand and Viet Nam, and at the local level in cooperation with policy-makers. The transformative pathways will need to consider the circumstances of different countries and implement concrete measures from now to 2050.
The Asia Sustainable Low Carbon Societies (Asia LCS) platform was created in 2004 (Japan, NIES 2014a) to contribute to comprehensive locally tailored scientific knowledge and roadmaps aligning low-carbon development with other national and global objectives and SDGs. The Asia LCS platform reported that low-carbon measures make it feasible to reduce Asia’s greenhouse gas emissions by 69 per cent compared to the reference scenario in 2050 (Figure 4.5.2; Japan, NIES 2014b).
4.5.3 Low-emission development strategies
A United Nations Development Programme report stated that an overall 50 per cent reduction of world greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 2050 will be required for development to be sustainable (UNDP 2010). To achieve this, developed countries will have to cut emissions by at least 80 per cent by 2050 relative to 1990, with 20–30 per cent cuts by 2020. For the large developing country emitters, it recommends an emission trajectory peaking in 2020, followed by a 20 per cent reduction by 2050 relative to 1990.
Such transformational change will require a low-emission development strategy. However, each country has unique national circumstances and priorities, so it is therefore difficult to develop a single strategy for all countries.
Low-emission development pathways contribute significant national co-benefits, such as improved energy security and resilience to energy price shocks, improved health due to lower local pollutant emissions, and increased agricultural and land-use productivity. Co-benefit analysis, therefore, is a prerequisite of a low-emission development strategy.
Effective international cooperation on low-emission development pathways would help mobilize financial and technological resources to support developing countries in mitigating and adapting to climate change.
Low-emission development strategies, such as nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) and INDCs under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), should be integrated into national development strategies (Boos et al. 2014; UNFCCC et al 2013). In order to achieve a low-carbon economy by 2050 and avoid locked-in emissions, the region should make early plans. One example is the Carbon and Cities Climate Registry (cCCR), a global mechanism developed for local governments by local governments (IISD 2014) that facilitates reporting of local climate action. Figure 4.5.3 shows the cities that have reported the action they have taken.
See references for Chapter 4 171
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