Megatrends, Emerging Issues and Outlooks


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s with past Global Environment Outlooks (GEOs), once the current state of the environment and policy response is assessed, it is important to look at


possible policy pathways to a more sustainable future. With recent developments at the international level in late 2015, namely the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement, this sustainable future is more easily defined.


The GEO series became more quantitative as it evolved from GEO-1 through GEO-4; GEO-5 was the first to include regional assessments focusing on policies; and GEO-6 is the first to include a regional outlook. This outlook uses a qualitative approach, similar to that of GEO-5, but at the regional scale.


This chapter has four main parts. Section 4.1 reviews previous similar outlooks. Section 4.2 provides a macro-level discussion of pressures and outlooks for elements such as population, natural capital, infrastructure development, and natural disasters and risks. Section 4.3 surveys important emerging issues. Section 4.4 reviews regional and sub- regional outlooks, and finally the last section 4.5 discusses transformative pathways and the SDGs.


4.1 Review of major regional outlooks


The review of major outlooks relevant to the region indicates that economic factors are the principal drivers of environmental outcomes. The Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) Asian Century outlook has two pathways: (i) Asian century, which assumes that the fast-growing economies that are already converging with best global practice will continue on this trajectory, while the more modest-growth economies will become “convergers” by 2020; and (ii) the middle-income trap, in which the fast-growing converging economies become economically trapped in the next 5–10 years, essentially following the pattern of Latin America, either stuck at low growth rates or having bursts of growth followed by periods of stagnation or even decline.


Food security has five scenarios: improved agricultural productivity; increased rice self-sufficiency; increased rice self-sufficiency alongside improved agricultural productivity; increased rice self-sufficiency accompanied by retaliatory tariffs from a key rice exporter; and natural disasters harming land productivity (Strutt and Nelgen 2013).


Key Messages


• Asia and the Pacific countries are increasingly aware of the importance of a healthy environment for the sustainable development of their economies and societies.


• However, accelerating environmental degradation and natural resource depletion are undermining the region’s potential to achieve this ambition.


• The region’s great diversity offers an opportunity to address these problems, build resilience and create sustainable prosperity for today’s populations and future generations.


• These opportunities include solutions based on smart cities, renewable energy, the data revolution, and a more holistic and integrated approach based on the SDGs.


 Credit: Shutterstock/ Ozphotoguy 147


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