Megatrends, Emerging Issues and Outlooks
economy and environment. Figure
4.1.1 shows that
business as usual (BAU) scenarios are considered negative for both the economy and environment in two cases, and in one case is positive for the economy but negative for the environment. In all cases, scenarios assess progressively stronger hypothetical interventions which improve both the economy and the environment. In other words, these scenarios suggest that strengthening environmental well- being will also strengthen economic well-being.
For example, GEO-2 identified two distinctive scenarios emerging from its analysis of trends: time is running out, and continued success. While the report recognized emerging environmental policy initiatives, these were found to be insufficient to arrest unhealthy trends in the areas of water, land degradation, forest destruction, loss of biodiversity and urban air pollution.
GEO-3 modelled four scenarios for 2002–2032 using quantitative work and qualitative narratives. Global and sub-regional implications for demographics, economy, atmosphere, human development, science and technology, governance, culture, environment, and so on, were presented. The implications were different for each sub-region. GEO-4 continued to use the scenarios introduced by GEO-3.
GEO-5 approached the scenarios with more qualitative discussion by reviewing the relevant published literature on drivers such as population and income, consumption, atmosphere, land, water and biodiversity. It emphasized enabling conditions such as shifting mind-sets, rules and incentives, and adaptive governance.
Climate change outlooks
The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adopted several socio- economic scenarios. The A1 scenario is market-oriented and countries experience relatively fast economic growth, while the A2 scenario is characterized by regionally oriented economies that preserve local identities and experience the lowest per-person growth of the four scenarios. The B1
scenario is characterized by convergent and service-oriented economies while the B2 scenario utilizes local solutions with rapid technology development. These scenarios project rapid economic and population growth.
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report uses representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to make projections and describes four different pathways of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations, air pollutant emissions and land use. The RCPs include a stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0) and one scenario with very high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5). Scenario RCP2.6 aims to achieve the global target of keeping global temperature rise to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. All scenarios agree on a strong link between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global temperature rise and several scenarios agree with high confidence that global surface temperatures are likely to exceed a 1.5°C rise by the end of the century relative to 1850–1900 (IPCC 2014a).
Resource-use outlooks
A report by UNEP and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (UNEP and CSIRO 2011) on resource efficiency concluded that a new industrial revolution is required, in which human needs are met with only about 20 per cent of the per person resource use of current systems. The UN World Water Assessment Programme developed five long-range global water scenarios where water stress appeared to be lowest in the global-consciousness scenario and highest in the conventional world-gone-sour scenario.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) report, Asia Pacific Forests and Forestry to 2020, forests will be negatively affected under a high- economic-growth-and-recovery scenario while net positive growth in the sector is possible in the social-and-ecological- stability scenario, mainly because of green economy measures and the UN’s deforestation and forest degradation reduction programmes (REDD and REDD+). Several developed countries in the region have taken significant
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