Million tonnes of oil equivalent


Megatrends, Emerging Issues and Outlooks


Innovation in cost-efficient renewable energy technologies is increasing in the region. Global and regional energy systems are being transformed, with a growing share of renewable energy in various sectors (Dangerman et al. 2013). Asia accounted for about 60 per cent of global progress on energy access and clean-energy objectives during 2010–2012, well beyond its share of global energy consumption (World Bank 2015). Until 2050, Asia and the Pacific will face the greatest demand for low-carbon energy supply, and key policy options include technology transfer to manage demand growth and greater social acceptance of changing energy supply sources (IEA 2015).


The share of renewable technologies (excluding hydropower) in electricity generation worldwide is increasing, from 8.5 per cent in 2013 to 9.1 per cent in 2014, when renewables contributed 48 per cent of the world’s newly added generating capacity. By 2030, global consumption of fossil fuels could decline to about 50 per cent of the 2014 level, with more than a 60 per cent reduction in coal consumption. Meanwhile, the use of clean energy will probably be double the level of 2014, with the largest share being solar energy (IEA 2015). The Asia and the Pacific region is expected to lead this structural shift in energy consumption by 2030. Still, at the current rate of increase of about 0.6–0.7 per cent per year, the share of renewables in total electricity generation would still only reach 20 per cent by 2030 (Figure 4.2.1). The speed of change is inhibited by several difficulties related to financing, inadequate energy market regulatory reform to enable larger-scale integration of intermittent renewables into electricity systems, continuing fossil-fuel subsidies, and weak or absent carbon prices.


Mobile telecommunication technology and big data will lead a revolution in two-way transparency of environmental monitoring and interactions, for example cell-phone-


Figure 4.2.1: Global primary energy demand by type in the intended nationally determined contributions scenario


12 000 15 000 18 000


3 000 6 000 9 000


0 2000 2005 2010 2013 2020 2025 2030 Nuclear Coal


Other renewables Bioenergy


Share of low-carbon sources (right axis)


Hydro


Gas Oil


Notes: ‘Other renewables’ includes wind, solar (photovoltaic and concentrating solar power), geothermal and marine energy source. Source: IEA 2015


based public reporting, early warning and monitoring of pollution events. Satellite-based Earth observation has been combined with big data to track and predict illegal logging and hunting in Southeast Asian tropical forests. Drones are becoming widely used to monitor biomass burning and land- use conversion. A small solar-powered battery and a tiny computer have already transformed remote Indian villages. This big bang of information and education, is improving human lives (Mahbubani 2012).


5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%


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