GEO-6 Regional Assessment for Asia and the Pacific


This large-scale urban expansion is expected to have direct impacts on biodiversity, carbon budgets (Seto et al. 2012) and the region’s climate (Jia et al. 2015). Proper planning of urban clusters and coordinated adaptation approaches are increasingly considered to be solutions for these emerging megapolitan regions (Georgescu et al. 2014). Providing public transport, as well as housing, electricity, water and sanitation, for a densely settled urban population is typically less costly and environmentally damaging than providing a similar level of services to a dispersed rural population. Therefore, future urbanization provides a good opportunity for Asia and the Pacific countries to better manage the environmental impacts of their economic growth and to move towards low-carbon and sustainable development.


4.2.2 Increasing pressure on ecosystems and natural capital


Increased use of Asia and the Pacific urban and agricultural land will continue to be driven by rapid economic growth and higher demand for land and natural resources. Properly planned urbanization can enhance land-use efficiency and may reduce pressure on natural ecosystems. In rural China, for example, millions of hectares of natural vegetation were re-established around newly abandoned villages and farmlands. Meanwhile, with a changing climate and increasing water use, major freshwater shortages may occur by 2050 as urban clusters continue to expand (McDonald et al. 2011). A total of 94 million people in Asia are projected to be living in cities with perennial water shortages in 2050.


The pressure on tropical forests is growing, and reducing carbon emissions by avoiding deforestation can be very costly. In Southeast Asia, the average area deforested annually is more than 1 million hectares, resulting in hundreds of millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per year between 2005 and 2015. The carbon price necessary to significantly reduce the region’s deforestation by 2030 could be twice the global average because of high economic pressure on the region’s tropical forest ecosystems (Kindermann et al. 2008).


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Pressure on ecosystems and environmental quality will rise as urban areas expand. Meanwhile, environmental pressures have increased with economic globalization and displacement (Lambin et al. 2011). An urbanization mitigation wedge, corresponding especially to energy- efficient urbanization in Asia, might reduce urban energy use by more than 25 per cent compared to business as usual (Creutzig et al. 2015). Cities with GDP of less than USD10 000 per person use nearly three times less energy than those above this threshold, while most Asia and the Pacific developing countries are well below the threshold.


Increased consumption of natural resources and fossil fuels will put heavy pressure on natural capital. Rising consumption among the new middle class can have major environmental impacts, but these could be mitigated by various policy initiatives. The world’s middle class is expanding rapidly, particularly in Asia developing countries that are now emerging economies. The global middle class population is expected to grow from less than 2 billion today to nearly 5 billion within two decades, largely from Asian emerging economies. The middle class is an important driver of economic growth due to its high income elasticity for durable goods and services, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicts that its global spending may grow to USD56 trillion (1012


)


by 2030 from USD21 trillion today. More than 80 per cent of this growth in demand is expected to come from Asia and the Pacific, putting heavier pressure on natural resources. Some evidence shows that the new middle class is often more environmentally conscious, and can sometimes lead local communities towards greener lifestyles, although this is far from certain.


Coastal areas and Pacific islands face the combined pressures of urbanization, sea-level rise and intensified extreme events such as disasters driven by climate change. Some islands are approaching a tipping point of major losses (Keener et al. 2013). Rising sea levels will increase the likelihood of coastal flooding, damaging coastal infrastructure, reducing habitat for endangered species and threatening shallow


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