GameOn - Go-Intel Report Asia-Pacific Frontier
in the first six months of 2025, up 1 per cent.[10] Analysts forecast full-year 2025 GGR of MOP228– 237bn, with growth of around 3-4 per cent in 2026-2027. Mass-market gaming, especially pre- mium mass, leads the rebound as junket VIP play declines.
Operators and market share: Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China hold sig- nificant share, particularly in Cotai. MGM China and Melco have gained share through integrated resorts emphasising entertainment and non- gaming amenities. SJM is rebuilding via Grand Lisboa Palace. With a ~40 per cent effective tax rate, operators emphasise higher-margin mass play over VIP junkets. Non-gaming (hotels, retail, MICE) contributes an increasing portion of rev- enue.
Challenges and outlook: Macau is exposed to Chinese macro conditions and travel policy. Crackdowns on capital outflows and cross-border gambling have curbed VIP seg- ments. Diversification into entertainment, retail, and MICE will remain crucial. Te government expects concessionaires to invest MOP108bn (US$13.4bn) in non-gaming projects over the 10- year term. Long-term, Macau should remain Asia’s premier gaming hub, though competition from Japan and potentially Tailand will intensify.
JAPAN Legal landscape: Gambling is generally prohibited except for public lotteries, horse racing, and pachinko (treated legally as amusement). Te Integrated Resort Im- plementation Act (2018) allows up to three casino licences within integrated resorts. Osaka’s project, led by MGM Resorts and Orix, received government approval and is projected to open in late 2030. Other potential sites included Nagasaki and Hok-
Te Osaka IR will anchor Japan’s casino sector and attract millions of foreign visitors. Social opposition, strict advertising controls, and a high entry levy for locals may limit domestic play. Online casino
legalisation is unlikely near- term, but skill-based social gaming and esports betting
could expand within current rules.
kaido, though bids were withdrawn. Online casino gambling remains illegal; horse racing and football (Toto) betting are permitted online.
Market statistics: Pachinko remains vast: in 2023, pachinko machines generated JPY8.2tn (US$53.1bn) and pachislot machines JPY7.5tn (US$48.7bn). Japan’s online gambling market generated US$4.443bn in 2024 and is projected to reach US$9.447bn by 2030, with a 13.5 per cent CAGR during 2025–2030; sports betting comprises 56.78 per cent. Smart- phone penetration is 78.6 per cent. E-wallets such as PayPay and Rakuten Pay are common, though cash use remains high.
Outlook: Te Osaka IR will anchor Japan’s casino sector and attract millions of foreign visitors. Japan’s stable regulatory environment and strong consumer spending power are attractive to operators. Social opposition, strict advertising controls, and a high entry levy for locals may limit domestic play. Online casino legalisation is unlikely near-term, but skill-based social gaming and esports betting could expand within current rules.
SOUTH KOREA Regulation: South Korea allows gambling for foreigners at 16 casinos; locals may gamble only at Kangwon Land. Casino operations are governed by the Tourism Promotion Act and the Special Act on the Assistance to the Development of Abandoned Mine Areas. Sports betting is allowed through Sports Toto (football, baseball, basketball, volleyball, golf) and pari-mutuel racing (horse, cycling). Online gambling is illegal except for authorised lottery and sports betting services.
Market performance: Casinos recorded KRW 3.23tn (US$2.30bn) in GGR in 2024, up 18.3 per cent year-on-year. Visitor numbers at foreigner-only casinos rose 42.4 per cent to 2.94 million. Kangwon Land gen- erated KRW1.36tr of the total; foreigner-only casinos generated KRW1.86tr. Analysts expect moderate growth in 2025 as tourism from Japan and China resumes. Sports betting turnover is robust via Sports Toto; online betting on fantasy baseball and esports is growing, albeit illegally.
Outlook: Strict online prohibitions keep the market pre- dominantly land-based. Government efforts to revitalise tourist hubs (e.g., Jeju) and develop IR clusters may support growth, but competition from Macau and prospective markets (Tailand, Japan) will intensify. Latent domestic demand persists, as residents travel abroad to gamble.
TAIWAN Regulation: Taiwan prohibits gambling under the Criminal Code, though proposals have periodically surfaced to allow casinos on outlying islands such as Matsu and Penghu. Referenda in Penghu (2016) and Matsu (2019) rejected casino development. Sports
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