US Prediction Markets Why Liquidity is the Edge
Prediction markets may look like gaming, but their success hinges on financial-market fundamentals. Drawing lessons from the UK betting exchange decline, Alexandre Luneau, Co-Founder and CEO of Moon Intelligence, warns that misaligned regulation could choke liquidity — and stall the US market before it reaches scale.
How would you characterise the US prediction markets landscape as we enter 2026?
Te number one characteristic of a prediction market is price. While product and marketing is at the centre of the sportsbook world, the prediction market space is all about the ability to offer customers the best price. Te landscape is likely to be characterised by “winner takes most dynamics”. Tis means the platform which attracts the most traders will be the platform that succeeds in the long term. Tis will be achieved by having the tightest spreads and largest liquidity in the market.
What makes this the right moment for Moon Intelligence to expand?
We started the company in 2018 and have been constantly expanding. Tis is a great scenario for us to accelerate that expansion. Te US prediction markets are focused on price, and this is precisely where our expertise lies. Since Moon Intelligence was founded, our clients have traded within some of the toughest markets in the world against the sharpest syndicates. With price the main focus, the current landscape provides us with a major opportunity to deploy our fundamental models and experience trading them.
Prediction markets sit at the intersection of gaming, finance, and forecasting. Which identity do you believe will dominate in the US?
Gaming will be the main identity that prediction markets take on in the US, and I expect the volume we see on these markets to be sport led. However, I anticipate the American public will be receptive to the everyday use of prediction markets for outcomes such as political elections and who will win an Oscar. We see this already happening, with Kalshi and Polymarket percentages popping up on popular talk shows. Tey have done a really good job creating fun markets that
100
people want to talk about. Teir popularity in mainstream culture will help drive the success of their sports product, although I predict the latter is what will drive revenue.
What regulatory direction does the US need to take for prediction markets to scale safely and legitimately? How would federal clarity impact operators and liquidity providers?
Regulation is a difficult question, as over-regulation can seriously damage the ability for a prediction market to succeed. Prediction markets simply cannot be treated like sportsbooks because they are not the same type of product. Te UK is a clear example where betting exchanges are regulated exactly like sportsbooks, which has resulted in volume dropping year-on-year to a point where the product is barely functional.
Regulators need to remember that prediction markets provide a fairer marketplace for the customer by offering the best possible prices. Sportsbooks merely follow the sharp pricing that market makers like us create on prediction markets, then charge their customers a significantly higher price to place a bet. Te uncertainty around regulation is probably stopping bigger hedge funds from investing in the space, who are currently sitting on the fence and assessing how the landscape evolves. Tis uncertainty matters less to groups like us who were active before and operate globally across multiple markets.
Liquidity remains the biggest challenge for US prediction markets. What does “healthy liquidity” look like, and how does Moon Intelligence intend to accelerate it?
Tis is a tough question. I would say the bare minimum is offering better pricing and liquidity compared to retail markets. In doing this you still need to provide winning players with access to this liquidity
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89 |
Page 90 |
Page 91 |
Page 92 |
Page 93 |
Page 94 |
Page 95 |
Page 96 |
Page 97 |
Page 98 |
Page 99 |
Page 100 |
Page 101 |
Page 102 |
Page 103 |
Page 104 |
Page 105 |
Page 106 |
Page 107 |
Page 108 |
Page 109 |
Page 110 |
Page 111 |
Page 112 |
Page 113 |
Page 114 |
Page 115 |
Page 116 |
Page 117 |
Page 118 |
Page 119 |
Page 120 |
Page 121 |
Page 122 |
Page 123 |
Page 124 |
Page 125 |
Page 126 |
Page 127 |
Page 128 |
Page 129 |
Page 130 |
Page 131 |
Page 132 |
Page 133 |
Page 134 |
Page 135 |
Page 136 |
Page 137 |
Page 138 |
Page 139 |
Page 140 |
Page 141 |
Page 142 |
Page 143 |
Page 144 |
Page 145 |
Page 146 |
Page 147 |
Page 148 |
Page 149 |
Page 150 |
Page 151 |
Page 152 |
Page 153 |
Page 154 |
Page 155 |
Page 156 |
Page 157 |
Page 158 |
Page 159 |
Page 160 |
Page 161 |
Page 162 |
Page 163 |
Page 164 |
Page 165 |
Page 166 |
Page 167 |
Page 168 |
Page 169 |
Page 170 |
Page 171 |
Page 172 |
Page 173 |
Page 174 |
Page 175 |
Page 176 |
Page 177 |
Page 178 |
Page 179 |
Page 180 |
Page 181 |
Page 182 |
Page 183 |
Page 184 |
Page 185 |
Page 186 |
Page 187 |
Page 188
