78 CHAPTER 5
Table 5.4—Percent change in poverty from a transfer of 30 percent of the average poverty line
Country Kenya
Malawi
Mozambique Uganda Zambia
Headcount ratio 15.9
10.3 8.6
18.2 8.1
Poverty gap ratio 33.7
24.5 25.9 33.3 20.6
Source: Kakwani, Soares, and Son (2005). Note: Transfer to all children ages five through sixteen.
resentation from East and West Africa and areas of high and low HIV/AIDS prevalence (Kakwani, Soares, and Son 2005, 16, 2). Both studies use unit- record household datasets from the 15 countries, which have been standard- ized (all use a systematic set of variables) by the World Bank for the purpose of comparing welfare across countries (Kakwani, Soares, and Son 2006, 555). The first simulation is an ex ante assessment of the impact of a cash
transfer on national poverty using several cash transfer scenarios.6 First, the authors designate a transfer budget based on a specific share of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The authors select 0.5 percent because they assume that African countries would need larger programs than those pro- vided by existing CCTs in richer Latin America, which represent between 0.1 and 0.2 percent of gross national income (Kakwani, Soares, and Son 2005, 18). Under the 0.5 percent of GDP budget allocation are three scenarios: universal targeting (a transfer for every child age five through sixteen), pov- erty and geographic targeting (a transfer for poor children and children in rural areas), and progressive targeting (a transfer whose value rises by 5 per- cent after a common base transfer, according to the child’s age). Finally, the authors simulate a transfer not as a percentage of GDP but instead as a pro- portion of the national poverty line (20, 30, or 40 percent). The simulations assume that transfers provided to children are pooled within families and allocated such that each family member enjoys the same level of welfare (Kakwani, Soares, and Son 2005, 17, 33). A transfer representing 0.5 percent of GDP to all school-age children brings about little impact on the headcount ratio but much greater impacts on the
6Estimates use the national poverty line for each country, which the authors have adjusted for equivalence and household economies of scale. For years in which no poverty line was available, the authors used the consumer price index to adjust the poverty lines to correspond to the survey years (Kakwani, Soares, and Son 2005, 16; Kakwani, Soares, and Son 2006, 555).
Severity of poverty 45.4
35.0 37.6 43.8 30.4
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