WESTMINSTER WATCH GARETH MORGAN
THE STARTING GUN A
FOR UK AIRPORT EXPANSION, THE GENERAL ELECTION COULD BE JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE CAMPAIGN…
t the time this edition of Buying Business Travel reaches you, the
bulk of the campaigning will be done and the UK general election will be upon us. This is the point where we
shift from a period of parties stressing how they disagree, to one where the emphasis is on finding common ground. That process doesn’t just start on the morning of May 8. For all the rhetoric from the two main parties that they are focused on an outright majority, a hung Parliament has been in the offing for a long time, and the parties have been planning for each scenario. Indeed, there were already discussions taking place some time ago that aimed to pave the way for a possible post-election deal (the Conservatives and the DUP, for example).
The Airports Commission’s recommendations will be a chance for some parties to dig in their heels
The launch of the manifestoes led to researchers locking themselves away and assessing the areas in which parties can work together, as well as those which they anticipate their potential coalition or ‘confidence and supply’ partners will have
as their red lines. So while the results may be new, the thinking is well advanced. However, looking back to 2010 and the coalition negotiating process, you realise how much more complicated things are now. At that time, the hung Parliament took everyone by surprise. The two main parties had no formal process (although the Lib Dems did) and there was a great deal of pressure to form a government which limited the time in which wrangling could take place. This time around, it’s a lot more complex. First, there’s the arithmetic to get to the 326-seat mark that provides a majority. 2015’s election-planning has been based on the possibility that no two parties are able to make that mark themselves – and so a third party, with their own agenda, would come into
play. So what was a game of checkers becomes 3-D chess. Second: the backbenchers. Last time, they were rather bounced into the coalition and the leadership dictated the terms and the deal. Not this time. Tory backbenchers, in particular, resented the policies that the Lib Dems managed to secure and won’t be voiceless again; indeed, the 1922 Committee (their backbench voice) has demanded to be part of the negotiations. Third: this time, the system is a bit more ‘grown up’, and we can expect a less frantic pace to negotiations. We know that if there is no new government the sky won’t fall, so this means there is less pressure to reach a quick compromise. Working out who will comprise the government and what they will be able to do is almost impossible to call, but we can certainly spot one of the first moments when the new administration will come under stress – when Sir Howard Davies’ Airports Commission report emerges in June. For certain parties (and certain parts of parties), the recommendations will be a chance to dig in their heels. For instance, a
recommendation for a third Heathrow runway will cause issues with the Greens, Lib Dems and Conservatives in west London (and possibly UKIP) that could create problems for potential administrations. In many ways, May 7 won’t be the end of the political campaigning – it will be the starting gun.
Gareth Morgan is a political lobbyist and director with Cavendish Communications (
www.cavendishpc.co.uk). He is an advisor to the Guild of Travel Management Companies (GTMC).
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BBT MAY/JUNE 2015
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