Thursday, 30th


August 2018


East Cork


Business


Europe. Now, with the Brexit election, they were having a field day. The opposition, ‘the Remainers’, pointed to all the benefits of being part of the European Union: An open market of over 500 million people


to trade with, with


no barriers or tariffs between countries, and with the free movement of


people, espe- by DR ROSARII GRIFFIN


BREXIT: What does it mean for Ireland? International Perspectives


Introduction We are all exhausted from


Brexit. It is almost a case of Brexit for breakfast, Brexit for lunch, and Brexit for dinner, every single day. How tedious! Yet, we have to remain inter- ested, as the ripple effects of Brexit will most certainly af- fect the Irish economy and so- ciety. What follows is my take on the matter:


PM Cameron At the time, few people


believed that Brexit would happen. Even the UK polls indicated Brexit would not come to pass. David Camer- on, the UK prime minister, thought so too. That is why he gambled on calling


cially skilled (and unskilled) workers to curb labour short- ages. After all, being part of the European club meant the free movement


of people,


capital, services and goods. That was a great deal, espe- cially for business.


‘Remainers’ & ‘Brexiteers’ When the ‘Remainers’ highlighted the


ily against staying in the EU. This electoral area included the industrial working-class heartland of England. De- spite the fact that these areas are largely supported by EU redevelopment


grants and


subsidies, it was these areas that predominantly voted to leave the EU.


It seemed as if


now the turkeys were voting for Christmas!


Voters In Britain, the working


class tend to be predomi- nantly ‘red top’ (right-wing) newspaper readers (the Daily Mail, the Express, the Sun). Similarly, more


educated economic


catastrophic end point that Brexit could entail - meaning the end of trading freely with the EU, the ‘Brexiteers’, sens- ing the change in the electoral mood, changed tack. They then started highlighting the immigration problem, and how it could impact nega- tively on UK society. They won that argument, despite the existence of the Schen- gen agreement, restricting those from outside


the EU the


referendum, to try to set- tle once and for all the one burning issue that had split his Conservative Party for decades: does the UK still want to remain a member of the European Union? Follow- ing his narrow victory in the Scottish national referendum (which threatened to break up the UK), Cameron - inflated with confidence in his ability to deliver - was spectacularly wrong in his judgement and was dealt a severe blow. He subsequently resigned and left what can only be described as the greatest political mess in modern times, and most cer- tainly, in living memory.


Brexit Unfolding The run up to the infa-


mous vote, held on the 23rd of June 2016, was filled with fear-ridden stories and doomsday scenarios on both sides. Right-wing papers, (the Daily Mail, the Telegraph, the Sun, etc.) for thirty years had badgered on negatively about


(even those with an EU visa) from travelling to the UK or Ireland (Ireland and the UK had opted out of the Schengen Agreement). The fear of vast inward immigration, stoked by UKIP, together with right wing Conservatives, created a climate of fear. That, com- bined with notion of ‘Brexit’ being ‘Independence Day’ from the EU, captured the British imagination. Thus, the outcome was that the EU lost a very powerful member of its club. And with it, despite our shared chequered history, Ireland lost an important EU partner and ally too.


Irony It is a strange irony that the


majority of the youth, (who enjoy and appreciate freedom of movement within the EU), the more educated sector of the population, and the urban centres, including London, were the areas that predomi- nantly voted to remain in the EU, realising the immediate and enormous benefits of do- ing so. It was the heartlands of the UK that voted primar-


@eastcorkjournal / #eastcorkjournal


and affluent right-wing con- servatives tend to be ‘Daily Telegraph’ readers. For them, the attraction of Brexit was to give Britain the opportunity to ‘go it alone’ simply because they themselves can! While the print media continued to influence their own co- hort of readers, nevertheless, Brexit did raise a lot of very uncomfortable questions for everyone: Cameron and his government; the entire EU population, and governments everywhere, especially here in Ireland, being the UK’s clos- est neighbour.


Brexit


Questions raised Important questions that raised included: why


did the working classes vote for Brexit? Why did they vote to leave when they were the chief beneficiaries of EU grants and subsidies? It seems obvious now that


they did


not feel they were benefiting from EU membership. Why was this not communicated to them better? Maybe Brexit indicated the fact that a two- tier Britain was emerging: those that have and those that have not. In other words, it was perhaps the privileged, educated, mobile classes – young, educated, or those that worked in the urban centres, like London, who were bene- fiting most from being part of the EU. Those outside the ur- ban areas, with less education and mobility, felt


they were


not thriving. Certainly, many fishing industries, industrial towns and mining areas have declined over the past


to replace such few


decades, and there perhaps has been a lack of inward investment


eastcorkjournal industries. Now, the chick-


ens (but not the fish!) were coming home to roost, and Westminster had to finally sit up and listen to these people. They did not want to be left behind.


Opinion Polls Then, the opinion polls, al-


most all of them, got it hope- lessly wrong. This was for a number of reasons. Firstly, they were obviously targeting the wrong people, or their sampling technique did not reflect voter turnout. Sec- ondly, they perhaps were not listening to the real concerns of the majority. Thirdly, the pollsters’ questions did not adequately reflect peoples’ answers. Or maybe


some


people felt embarrassed and simply lied to the pollsters. I believe the reasons the poll- sters got it so wrong needs to be investigated further. It also appears that there may also have been some outside (Russian) interference in the democratic process. This oc- curred with the creation of fake social media accounts – creating negative


narratives


around EU membership. In any case, Britain, and the rest of Europe, woke up to the harsh reality of Brexit on June 24th


2016 when a majority of


people, (albeit a slim major- ity, and ironically, including those of immigrant origin), voted to leave the EU. Now the mammoth task remained - how was this going to be implemented with minimal disruption to everyday life? Westminster was left scratch- ing its head. Cameron was now consigned to the annals of


history as being possibly


one of the worst prime min- isters ever for having failed to deliver on Brexit.


It was a


devastating blow for everyone in the UK, the EU and here, apart (of course) for those who voted for Brexit – they got their independence day!


Northern Ireland and Scotland To add to the complication


of Brexit, Northern Ireland and Scotland voted to remain in the EU. Clearly they had realised the EU’s strategic im- portance for their future eco- nomic development. But now, how was Brexit going to work, if the UK (which currently


comprises Northern Ireland), and Scotland voted to remain in the European Union? Im- mediately, the EU clarified it can only deal with mem- ber governments, meaning Westminster speaking as one voice for the UK. Scotland and Northern Ireland would have to resolve its differences internally. And then, there is the added complication of the Northern Irish border with the Republic of Ireland. As the Republic of Ireland remains within the EU, this technically would mean the erection of barriers, restrict- ing freedom of movement of people, capital, services and goods, particularly if we were to get a ‘Hard Brexit’. Add- ed to this mix lies a fragile peace process in operation in Northern Ireland since 1997. This potentially could now be threatened by this Brexit reality. But negotiations are ongoing, working to minimise obstruction to everyday life in the border area.


A Federal Europe? Of late, here


to be a drive within the EU towards making Europe


appeared a


Federal State. Each coun- try would be akin to a State in the USA. The EU would become the US of Europe (USE). At least, this appears to be the Franco-German drive in recent times. With the joint currency (the Euro), the power of the EU legislature, and increased membership of the EU – mostly from Eastern Europe - the EU certainly is on an enlargement exercise. Although the Irish voted for the Euro, it did not ratify the Nice Treaty until a clause pertaining to Irish neutrality was inserted. But it seems as if the EU has moved away from its original ideals around free trading between nations, guaranteeing prosperity and peace for all its citizens. This was a noble ideal following two devastating wars: World War I (1914-1918) and World War II (1939-1945). Now, it appears to be moving towards a more federal state. But is this really what Ireland wants?


EU Direction While the EU founding


was well intentioned and hugely successful (the EU now being the largest and


most successful trading block in the world), still, its move towards a political unity is what some countries are find- ing difficult to accept i.e. the UK. This was also the driving force behind Brexit, and their decision to leave the EU, so as to control their own laws and regulations again, rather than being dictated to from Brussels. While the UK never joined the Euro, retaining the British Pound as their curren- cy, they thus retained an abil- ity to regulate their own fiscal and economic destiny. This was effective, particularly dur- ing the economic crash. Nor did they join Schengen, thus controlling the flow of inward migration. Maybe Brexit has put the brakes on the EU be- coming a super state for now? And if so, is this such a bad thing? This is something per- haps we as a nation needs to discuss? Is Ireland comfort- able in moving in this direc- tion? If not, we may also need to take a stance, or start a dia- logue, about the future course of the EU and the direction we would like it and Ireland to go?


Russia, the UK and EU Meanwhile, Russia has


been implicated in interfering with the Brexit vote. What’s Putin’s interest in meddling in Brexit? Putin, as leader of the ‘United Russia’ party, wants to extend Russian influence. The annexing of Crimea is an example of this. The next will probably be the Ukraine. NATO (the West’s defence force) has been undermined with the election of Trump. It seems Russia helped to get Trump elected. Clinton and Obama were both Trump and Putin’s nemeses. Hence, ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’. For instance, prior to Trump’s election, Obama enacted the Global Magnitsky Act, allowing the US Govern- ment to sanction foreign gov- ernment officials (i.e. freeze their assets) involved in hu- man rights abuses anywhere in the world. This legislation was called after a US busi- nessman’s accountant Sergei Magnitsky, who was beaten to death in a Russian prison for


highlighting wide scale


corruption in Putin’s govern- ment. Trump it appears was


aware of and seemingly open to Russian assistance vis-à-vis his US presidential campaign. Since his election, Trump has weakened NATO’s stance through his dubious friend- ship with Putin, as well as having other dubious Rus- sian financial connections. A weakened NATO, EU and UK (politically and military) is ideal for Putin. Recent developments have


made


Eastern European countries bordering Russia very nerv- ous. They do not want to fall under Russian influence again. The UK was one of the EU’s strongest members. Brexit may weaken the UK and the EU as a powerhouse. Russia is no friend of the UK, having murdered (by poi- soning) former Russian spies (and other critics of Putin) on UK soil. This has strained the UK-Russian relationship, and spurred on the UK to also in- troduce elements of the Mag- nitsky Act in February 2017. The whole future of the EU could now also be at a cross- roads with Brexit.


Brexit and Ireland As for Ireland, what does


Brexit mean for us? A lot has yet to be seen. Hopefully, for our agricultural sector, it will be ‘a soft Brexit’, as the UK is our largest export market in the agri-sector. Already last year, we saw how the Irish mushroom business collapsed as a result of a fluctuating sterling following Brexit fears. However, there may be op- portunities too, especially in respect of education. Many fellow Europeans may prefer to travel to Ireland to learn English, Ireland perceived as a more welcoming country, with open EU borders. How Brexit will really pan out has yet to be seen, but hopefully, with adequate preparation on the Irish government’s side, this too shall pass, and life will continue as if we never had to have Brexit for breakfast, let alone lunch and dinner!


Profile: Rosarii is a lecturer and


researcher at UCC. She is a also Governor of UCC and Fellow of the London Royal Society of Arts. All opinions expressed here are en- tirely her own. She can be reached on


info@eastcorkjournal.


ie or @rosarii_griffin. Copyright Rosarii Griffin.


Tel: 021 463 8000 • Email: info@eastcorkjournal.ie • Web: www.eastcorkjournal.ie


info@eastcorkjournal.ie


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