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pace of urbanization. Because the share of people employed in agriculture has fallen much faster than their productivity has risen, agriculture as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) has declined rapidly in most African countries. In most of these countries, labor has migrated out of agriculture faster than it can be absorbed into the nonagriculture sector, undermining produc- tivity growth—not only in agriculture, but in the economy as a whole. Te problem is as much slow growth in agriculture as it is poor labor absorption outside agriculture. For the average African country, the size


of the agriculture sector as a share of GDP is nearly 20 percentage points smaller than one would expect based on the actual level of eco- nomic development. Te service sector, on the other hand, is about 20 percentage points larger than one would expect.6 Tis imbalance in the growth of the two sectors has slowed produc- tivity and income growth across Africa. How can African countries capitalize on the ongoing agricultural and economic growth recovery of the past 15 years to boost the transformation of their economies?


NOT JUST AGRICULTURE, BUT INDUSTRIALIZATION


To achieve successful structural change, coun- tries need to produce more sophisticated, higher- value goods for which demand expands globally as incomes rise around the world. Te decades of economic stagnation preceding Africa’s current recovery meant that African economies failed to promote product sophistication. From 1962 to 2000, the average indicator of the degree of sophis- tication of all products produced by African coun- tries was 50 to 60 percent lower than the estimated average for a sample of 97 other countries.7 Te value of the estimated indicator for agricultural products not only is low, but has stagnated since the 1960s. During the 1960s, most African countries pur-


sued an industrialization strategy led by the pub- lic sector and designed to substitute for imported goods. Te widespread failure of these efforts has leſt most African countries without any bold and credible strategies for industrialization. Successful economic transformation is associ-


ated with a series of changes in the overall econ- omy. Tese changes include a rise in the absolute


Donors intensified their Programme


alignment and harmonization efforts in 2011. They funded the Programme bilaterally and multilaterally through its Multi-donor Trust Fund and Global Agriculture and Food Security Program. The Multi-donor Trust Fund supports Programme implementation processes while the Global Agriculture and Food Security Program addresses potential underfunding of national agricultural investment plans. With a US$46.5 million grant in 2011 to support Liberia’s national agricultural investment plan, the Global Agriculture and Food Security Program has now allocated more than US$270 mil- lion to support the national agricultural investment plans of six African countries. The Programme implementa-


tion process has had its challenges.


Engagement of civil society and the private sector has been limited in some countries while some national agricultural investment plans have had unrealistic growth and poverty reduction targets and funding require- ments. Nonetheless, these challenges are already being addressed. The New Partnership for Africa’s Development (the African Union’s planning and coordinating agency) and develop- ment partners commissioned guide- lines for nonstate-actor participation, and the 7th Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme Partnership Platform meeting, held in March 2011, called for their system- atic and targeted dissemination across countries. Efforts are also underway to strengthen country implementation


capacity and improve the quality of national agricultural investment plans. For example, Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support Systems in individ- ual countries—which are being estab- lished with the technical support of the International Food Policy Research Institute and Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support Systems—are expected to improve analytical and review capacities for evidence-based agricultural policy planning, implemen- tation, and monitoring and evaluation. It is noteworthy that Programme imple- mentation coincides with the conti- nent’s agricultural growth recovery.3 Renewed agricultural growth provides a solid foundation for African countries as they work to implement their agricul- tural investment plans.


REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 83


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