variable rainfall, moving livestock from place to place has traditionally been an effective way of cop- ing with drought. Historically, however, there has been a long-
standing debate on whether mobile livestock rear- ing is sustainable. Some early critics argued that the difficulty of managing common resources led to excessive herd build-up and boom-and-bust cycles, overgrazing and land degradation, and depletion of water resources.7 In the 1990s and 2000s, however, a growing body of evidence sug- gested that herd build-up in post-drought years was a rational atempt to increase overall herd resilience to subsequent droughts.8 Tere is also now a fairly broad consensus that pastoralism does not lead to permanent damage to rangelands.9
Given the Horn of Africa’s abundant land and variable rainfall, moving livestock from place to place has
traditionally been an effective way of coping with drought.
Yet this does not mean that the issue of the
region’s “carrying capacity” is no longer relevant. Even if pastoralists’ herd management strategies are individually rational and ecologically sound, human and livestock populations have grown rap- idly in many parts of the Horn, and this growth has taken place on a fixed natural resource base. In many parts of the Horn, human population growth rates have been close to 3 percent a year, and fertil- ity rates remain high. At these rates, the population will double every 25 to 30 years. Te growing number of humans and animals
seems to be increasing vulnerability in some parts of this region. For example, pastoralists reported a 50 percent decline in median herd size over 1980– 98 in northern Kenya, a region where human
population growth was particularly rapid and land resources relatively constrained.10 Other research suggests that the increasing competition over land in much of the region is largely a result of human population growth (partly owing to migrants from nonpastoralist areas).11 Policies and institutional factors may also be
contributing to land fragmentation and reduced herd mobility. Tere have been significant efforts to expand irrigation in pastoralist areas, atempts to develop ranch-style livestock systems, and a con- sequent breakdown of community-based property right systems (through, for example, accelerated fencing of previously communal land). Underlying many of these trends are government policies and institutions that have typically done a poor job of protecting pastoralists’ property rights. Whatever its underlying causes, loss of mobility
significantly weakens pastoralists’ coping capac- ity. Areas with reduced mobility have been hard- est hit in recent droughts in Kenya and Ethiopia. And more generally, sedentary farmers—typically ex-pastoralists—are poorer and more vulnerable than pastoralists, precisely because pastoralists can use mobility as a coping mechanism. Yet despite substantial evidence on the potential benefits of pastoralism in this kind of environment, central governments—which are oſten wary of mobile populations that regularly cross national borders unchecked—typically underappreciate the need for mobility. In summary, the reasons why the region is
seemingly more vulnerable are far more com- plex than is oſten understood. Yes, drought is a major factor, as is the oſt-cited conflict in Somalia. Yet underlying these shocks are slower-moving stresses—such as the reduction of herd sizes and the loss of herd mobility—that have under- mined the resilience of communities in the region. Identifying the deeper sources of these stresses is far from easy, but many informed observers agree that there is a vicious cycle at work related to interactions between population growth, local conflicts, land fragmentation, and reduced mobility.12
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DÉJÀ VU IN THE HORN OF AFRICA
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