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strategies in the region. Even the most experienced researchers on the Horn of Africa acknowledge the lack of information on what works and what does not. Developing evidenced-based strategies means trying out technological and institutional inno- vations to cope with the region’s problems—and then rigorously evaluating those innovations. Rel- evant ideas and technologies can be imported from extensive livestock systems elsewhere in the world, such as Africa, Australia, Central Asia and China, the Middle East, and North America. New technol- ogies could include greater use of cellular phones for market and early warning information, satellite- based weather information on rainfall and pasture availability, index-based livestock insurance, and improved seeds. Institutional innovations might include improved regulation of water points, cre- ation of livestock corridors (especially where irriga- tion schemes are present), strategic investments in infrastructure with stronger links to livestock cen- ters, value-chain interventions (such as fatening of livestock), mobile schools and clinics, and public– private partnerships to encourage private invest- ment in the region. All of these schemes could help


mitigate the disadvantages of distance and the vagaries of the climate, but figuring out what works and what does not will require greater experimen- tation and more rigorous evaluation.


MOVING FORWARD


Major climatic shocks in the Horn of Africa are inevitable, but human vulnerability to these shocks is not. Promoting social, economic, and ecological transformation in the region could build up resil- ience to these shocks and mitigate the slower- moving stresses that also undermine progress in the Horn. Achieving that resilience requires investing more in both livestock and nonlive- stock sectors, rapidly expanding infrastructure and human capital, making synergistic improve- ments in disaster risk management and develop- ment interventions, and improving governance and conflict resolution efforts. Te precise instruments for achieving these outcomes are less obvious, but they must inevitably be the product of innova- tion, experimentation, and—not least—political commitment. ■


DISASTERS


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