FIGURE 3 Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980–2008 on crop yields, divided by the overall yield trend


Maize


United States


World India France Brazil China


−20 −10 0 % yield impact Rice


World Vietnam Bangladesh Indonesia India China


−20 −10 0 % yield impact 10 20 Soy


United States


Argentina Brazil


Paraguay China


World −20 −10 0 % yield impact


Source: Figure 3 in D. B. Lobell, W. Schlenker, and J. Costa-Roberts, “Climate Trends and Global Crop Production since 1980,” Science 333, no. 6042 (2011): 616–620, doi:10.1126/science.1204531.


a drought, the yield declines begin at lower temper- atures and can be greater than 40 percent. Other recent research strongly suggests that


rising temperatures in the second half of the 20th century and early years of the 21st century, and accompanying changes in precipitation, have already had observable effects on agriculture. Although growing season temperature changed only slightly in North America from 1980 to 2008, it increased dramatically in other parts of the world, particularly China and Europe (Figure 2). Te consequence of the differing temperature increases can clearly be seen in the changes in


yields (Figure 3). For maize, climate change had essentially no effect on US yield trends, whereas it substantially slowed yield growth in Brazil, China, and France. In some countries, however, regional crop production has benefited from higher tem- peratures. Te growing area has shiſted northward for maize in the United States, rice in China, and wheat in Russia.


THE CHALLENGE TO FOOD SECURITY


Te precise temperature and precipitation changes that climate change will bring, as well as the


CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 45 10 20 10 20 Wheat


India China


United States


World France Russia


−20 −10 0 % yield impact 10 20


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