world agricultural markets and become an increas- ingly active player on the international scene (see Box 13 in Chapter 8).
Middle East and North Africa The Arab Awakening
and Food Security Clemens Breisinger, Olivier Ecker, Perrihan Al-Riffai, and Bingxin Yu, IFPRI
Te self-immolation of a young Tunisian man in December 2010 sparked a wave of protests and uprisings across the Arab world in 2011. Te Arab Awakening has most directly affected Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen, but it may also provide impetus for change in other Arab countries. But with opportunities have come signif- icant challenges for governments and civil society. In the short run, countries in transition have seen a sharp slowdown in economic growth and a related rise in unemployment. In addition, political fluid- ity, coupled with rising food and fuel prices, has led to widespread increases in food and fuel subsidies, public-sector wages, and other government wel- fare spending.1 As a result, oil-importing countries in particular face growing budget gaps, inflation in both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries is expected to rise, and foreign exchange reserves are expected to contract. Moreover, conflict and security concerns have dampened tourism, remit- tances, and foreign direct investment throughout the region.2 Mastering these short-term challenges will be critical for a successful transition process. Achieving prosperity will also require address-
ing long-standing challenges in the region. Not only political issues, but also socioeconomic issues likely contributed to the onset of the Arab Awakening.3 Tese socioeconomic factors include unemploy- ment, especially among the youth, growing income disparities, and a high risk of food insecurity for both countries and households (Figure 1). While public spending is relatively high in Arab countries, it contributes less to economic growth than it does in other world regions. And economic growth does not trickle down to the poor in Arab countries as
80 FOOD POLICY TAKING SHAPE AT THE LOCAL LEVEL
readily as it does in the rest of the world. In most countries, agricultural growth, for instance, leads to substantial reductions in child undernutrition, but not in the Arab countries. Manufacturing and ser- vice sector–led growth in the Arab region is more in line with the rest of the world, and, given a condu- cive business environment, these sectors have large potential to create jobs and drive improvement in the well-being of the poor. Finding solutions to these challenges will
require a broad economic road map and country- specific development strategies. Research can help with evidence that identifies the pros and cons of alternative policy options. To improve food secu- rity and reduce poverty, Arab policymakers should focus on the following key areas:
1. Improve data and capacity for evidence- based decisionmaking. Decisions based on
flawed data can damage economies, harm peo- ple’s well-being, and lead to significant finan- cial losses, so policymakers and voters need realistic and accurate baseline data. Currently, some official numbers, such as official poverty and inequality indicators, may underestimate the extent of the problems facing many Arab countries. Admiting that these data are flawed will help increase the credibility of policy- makers and allow them to set targets against which future progress can be more realistically assessed. Countries should not only improve the quality of their data, but also make that data more accessible.
2. Foster growth that enhances food security. Fostering economic growth is fundamental for enhancing food security, yet certain types of growth do more to improve food security at the country level, whereas other types of growth have stronger effects on household- level food security. Export-led growth gener- ates foreign exchange revenues for food imports and thus improves food security at the coun- try level. Inclusive growth that generates jobs and increases incomes for the poor enhances food security at the household level. Growth, combined with appropriate tax systems, also
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