well-being of the poorest. With sustainable devel- opment, calorie availability improves dramatically in the 40 countries with the lowest income today. Second, climate change significantly reduces calo- rie availability around the world, as shown by the gap between a scenario of perfect mitigation and the rest of the climate change scenarios. Finally, although the different climate change scenarios have substantially different consequences for agri- cultural productivity, the final outcomes for calorie availability are similar. Tis result is due to dra- matic differences in trade flows in the different scenarios. Tus, relatively open international trade will be a crucial part of adapting to climate change. Rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emissions, especially in developing countries, combined


with growing evidence of negative climate change effects on agriculture, the likelihood of nonlinear effects of temperature on yields, and hints of the added burden of more frequent extreme weather events suggest an extremely serious challenge for sustainable food secu- rity. Renewed efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and redoubled efforts to develop crop and livestock varieties, along with management systems that remain productive with higher temperatures and more extremes in heat and pre- cipitation, are crucial. In 2011, the body of evi- dence on the threat to food security from climate change became increasingly robust. Te chal- lenge is to find the resources to address the prob- lems before they overwhelm us. ■


CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE


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