Somalia. Te situation in Somalia was particularly grave: 4 million people—more than half of the country’s population—were in crisis (Figure 1). Of these, 750,000 were officially declared as experiencing famine. Since mid-2011, thousands are known to have died, especially infants and small children. Given the severity of this drought, and the fre-
quency of humanitarian emergencies in the region, several troubling questions arise. Why is the region seemingly more vulnerable now than in the past, especially aſter decades of humanitarian and
development assistance? And what steps need to be taken to improve development and relief efforts to render the peoples of the Horn more resilient to the next drought?
WHY IS THE HORN OF AFRICA SO VULNERABLE?
Unlike some of the other disasters of 2011, the crisis in the Horn of Africa is not a one-time event. Since the Great African Famine of 1982–84, vulnerabil- ity (Figure 2) and aid dependency appear to have
BOX 3
After the Floods: Pakistan and Food Security Paul Dorosh and Sohail J. Malik, IFPRI
U
nusually heavy monsoon rains con- tributed to severe flooding in parts
of Pakistan in 2010 and 2011. From July to August 2010, flood waters covered 50,000 square kilometers and affected more than 18 million people (about one- tenth of the total national population), resulting in about 2,000 flood-related deaths, loss of 500,000 livestock, and damage to or destruction of 2.2 million hectares of standing crops, 1.7 million homes, and 10,000 schools. Then, close on the heels of this disaster, the 2011 flood struck southern parts of Pakistan in August through October. Although it affected a smaller area than the 2010 flood and only about half as many people, the combined human and physical costs underscored the importance of continued improvements in disaster rehabilitation and recovery in Pakistan.1 Earlier experiences in Pakistan and
other South Asian countries have shown that disaster recovery should incorporate livelihood strategies for affected house- holds, including
28 DÉJÀ VU IN THE HORN OF AFRICA
• prioritizing social protection of the most vulnerable groups,
• raising awareness about new programs,
• ensuring the participation of key stake- holders (from a multisector base as well as the community) in the decisions made for each program,
• tailoring interventions to specific needs of vulnerable groups, and
• providing temporary work schemes. In particular, the experience of the
1998 Bangladesh flood—where poor households had a continuing debt burden of about US$100 (equivalent to a month and half’s average consumption) even fifteen months after the flooding—high- lighted the importance of private-sector borrowing in the coping strategies of the poor and the need to consider substantial transfers to these households to avoid long-term adverse effects. While Pakistan benefited from some of the experiences of the past, delays in
funding and implementation—caused in part by donor reluctance in the face of a deteriorating governance and law and order situation—plagued the response to the Pakistan 2010 floods. Thankfully, domestic wheat prices in Pakistan remained stable due to a good harvest in April 2010 and abundant private and public stocks. The Pakistani authori- ties processed 1.5 million flood-affected households and provided almost 900,000 households with emergency shelter. About 6 million people received food assistance in monthly rations through January 2011. The Government of Pakistan also initiated a Citizen’s Damage Compensation Program designed to give to each of the 1.5 million affected fami- lies a one-time payment of approximately US$230 (in the form of a debit card or “Watan Card”). An ex post evaluation of program effectiveness, including tar- geting of payments and other aspects, should yield additional useful lessons and insights for future disaster preparedness and relief and recovery in Pakistan.2
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