Chapter 4 CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE


Modest Advances, Stark New Evidence


Gerald C. Nelson and Tolulope Olofinbiyi, IFPRI T


he year 2011 brought both good and bad news about climate change and agricul- ture. Te good news is that aſter initial steps


toward rebuilding confidence in the United Nations’ climate change negotiations were taken in Cancun in December 2010, further progress occurred in Durban in 2011. And outside the formal negotiations process, many countries have begun to implement their own mecha- nisms to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to some climate changes that increasingly seem inevitable.


Te bad news includes growing evidence that climate change has already


affected agricultural productivity1 and will put increasing pressure on agricul- ture in the coming decades. Recordbreaking extreme weather events around the world in 2011 offered a glimpse of the challenges climate change will bring. Farmers worldwide will need to adapt to higher temperatures and shiſting pre- cipitation paterns. In addition, climate variability will likely cut into global food production, exacerbating the existing problems of poverty, food insecu- rity, and malnutrition. In addition, aſter declining in the wake of the global financial crisis, greenhouse gas emissions are once again rising rapidly, making the climate change challenge to food security much greater.


REBUILDING CONFIDENCE IN INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS, SLOWLY


Delegates to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change arrived in Copenhagen in December 2009 with great optimism that an agree- ment could be reached to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and provide


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