INCREASING RESILIENCE IN THE HORN OF AFRICA
Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa requires striking a balance between strengthen- ing pastoralism—the region’s traditional and still dominant economic activity—and promot- ing meaningful economic diversification. As it is, the region is already more diversified than is implied by the label “pastoralist.” For example, in the Somali region of Ethiopia, almost 70 percent of households engage in livestock rearing, but a large share also produce crops (43.4 percent), fire- wood (17.0 percent), and charcoal (14.7 percent). A smaller number of households engage in various cotage industries such as mat making (6.3 percent), services (10.0 percent), trading (3.8 percent), and general labor or employment (2.4 percent).13 Other regions show similar or even greater degrees of diversity.14 However, the most common alternative live-
lihoods generate low returns. Agro-pastoralism (a sector oſten composed of failed pastoralists) typically pays significantly less than pastoralism, whereas irrigated farming pays somewhat more and urban livelihoods pay much more (Table 1). Table 1 masks the fact that agro-pastoralists’ rain- fed farming is an extremely volatile livelihood, per- haps more so than pastoralism (since pastoralists can cope with drought through increased mobil- ity). Moreover, the major secondary occupations of collecting and selling natural products, such as fire- wood and charcoal, pay the lowest of all.15 Tese
occupations are very much a negative coping strat- egy since they damage the environment and can impede pastoralism by removing the shrubs upon which livestock feed. Tis evidence suggests that if pastoralist econo-
mies are to diversify, they should do so by expand- ing irrigated farming and increasing migration to urban areas. In the short to medium run, however, the basic issue is how many new entrants these alternative livelihoods can absorb. For example, a recent analysis estimated that additional irrigation investments in arid and semi-arid lowland regions in East Africa could profitably absorb a minimum of 3.2 percent of its rural population in 2020 and a maximum of 12.6 percent, depending on assump- tions about viable farm size and irrigation costs (Table 2).16 Te percentage absorbed could be somewhat larger if the estimates include rainwater harvesting, which essentially offers seasonal irriga- tion opportunities. But there are reasons to be cautious about irriga-
tion potential. Dryland irrigation schemes in the region have oſten adopted inappropriate practices or technologies that have quickly become unsus- tainable and unprofitable. Irrigation schemes can also restrict pastoralists’ access to key water points and dry-season grazing lands. And there are ques- tions about how sustainable arid and semi-arid low- land irrigation is in the context of the lower rainfall predicted by climate change models, as well as about negative downstream impacts on neighbor- ing communities.17
TABLE 1 Well-being by livelihood type in the Somali region of Ethiopia, 2005 Livelihood type
Pastoralism
Agro-pastoralism Irrigated farming Urban
Average incomea 217 (340)
97 (199) 254 (345) 1,081 (1,103)
Dietary diversity scoreb
4.3 3.4 3.9 6.8
19.6 35.4 49.4
Children
immunized (%) 24.4
Adult literacy (%) 13.7
11.4 12.5 49.9
Source: S. Devereux, Vulnerable Livelihoods in Somali Region, Ethiopia, Research Report No. 57 (Sussex, UK: Institute of Development
Studies, 2006). aIncome is in 2005 birr per month. Figures in parentheses reflect average income when households with zero income are excluded from
the calculation. bDietary diversity score is the number of different food groups consumed in the preceding 24 hours, with the indicator ranging from 0 to 13 food types.
DISASTERS
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