NOTES
CHAPTER 1 Text
1 N. Kumar and A. R. Quisumbing, Gendered Impacts of the 2007–08
Food Price Crisis: Evidence Using Panel Data from Rural Ethiopia, IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 1093 (Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2011). 2
lic University of Louvain (Belgium), EM-DAT: The International Disas- ter Database,
www.emdat.be/database. 3
Munich Re, “Review of Natural Catastrophes in 2011: Earthquakes
Result in Record Loss Year,” press release, January 4, 2012. 4
H. De Gorter and D. Just, “The Economics of Blend Mandates for
Biofuels,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 91, no. 3 (2009): 738–750. 5
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The State
of the World’s Land and Water Resources: Managing Systems at Risk (Rome and London: FAO and Earthscan, 2011). 6
J. Behrman, R. Meinzen-Dick, and A. Quisumbing, “The Gender
Implications of Large-Scale Land Deals,” Journal of Peasant Studies 39, no. 1 (2012): 49–79. 7
High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the
Committee on World Food Security, Land Tenure and International Investments in Agriculture (Rome: 2011); Food and Agriculture Orga- nization of the United Nations, “FAO Head Warns on Land-Grabbing: Foreign Investment as Tool for Development,” press release, May 12, 2011; K. Deininger and D. Byerlee with J. Lindsay, A. Norton, H. Selod, and M. Stickler, Rising Global Interest in Farmland: Can It Yield Sustainable and Equitable Benefits? (Washington, DC: World Bank); International Fund for Agricultural Development, Responding to “Land Grabbing” and Promoting Responsible Investment in Agricul- ture, IFAD Occasional Paper Series (Rome: 2011).
CHAPTER 2 Text
1 C. Martins-Filho, M. Torero, and F. Yao, “Estimation of Quan-
tiles Based on Nonlinear Models of Commodity Price Dynamics and Extreme Value Theory” (Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2010), mimeo. 2
Figure 2 shows the results of a model of the dynamic evolution of
daily returns based on historical data going back to 1954 (known as the Nonparametric Extreme Quantile [NEXQ] Model). This model is then combined with extreme value theory to estimate higher-order quantiles of the return series, allowing for classification of any par- ticular realized return (that is, effective return in the futures market) as extremely high or not. A period of time characterized by extreme price variation (volatility) is a period of time in which we observe a large number of extreme positive returns. An extreme positive return is defined to be a return that exceeds a certain pre-established threshold. This threshold is taken to be a high order (95 percent) con- ditional quantile (that is, a value of return that is exceeded with low probability: 5 percent). One or two such returns do not necessarily
indicate a period of excessive volatility. Periods of excessive volatil- ity are identified based on a statistical test applied to the number of times the extreme value occurs in a window of 60 consecutive days. 3
P. Al-Riffai, B. Dimaranan, and D. Laborde, “Global Trade and Envi- Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Catho-
ronmental Impact Study of the EU Biofuels Mandate,” report on a study carried out by the International Food Policy Research Insti- tute (IFPRI) for the Directorate General on Trade of the European Commission (Brussels, 2010), mimeo; P. Al-Riffai, B. Dimaranan, and D. Laborde, “European Union and United States Biofuel Mandates: Impacts on World Markets,” Technical Notes No. IDB-TN-191 (Wash- ington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank, 2010); D. Laborde, Assessing the Land Use Changes Consequences of European Biofuel Policies and Its Uncertainties, ATLASS research report for the Direc- torate General on Trade of the European Commission (Brussels, 2011). 4
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Rising
Food Prices: Causes and Consequences, OECD Policy Report (Paris, 2008),
www.oecd.org/dataoecd/54/42/40847088.pdf; J. von Braun, Rising Food Prices: What Should Be Done? IFPRI Policy Brief (Wash- ington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2008); US Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-460 (Washington, DC, 2008); D. Headey and S. Fan, Reflections on the Global Food Cri- sis: How Did It Happen? How Has It Hurt? And How Can We Prevent the Next One? Research Monograph 165 (Washington, DC: Interna- tional Food Policy Research Institute, 2010); HM Government, The 2007/08 Agricultural Price Spikes: Causes and Policy Implications (Lon- don: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, 2010). 5
R. H. Kripalani, J. H. Oh, A. Kulkarni, S. S. Sabered, and H. S. Chaud-
hari, “South Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Variability: Cou- pled Climate Model Simulations and Projections under IPCC AR4,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology 90, nos. 3–4 (2007): 133–159; M. J. Salinger, “Climate Variability and Change: Past, Present, and Future—An Overview,” Climatic Change 70, nos. 1–2 (2005): 9–29; K. Viatcheslav, F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and G. C. Hegerl, “Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensemble of Global Coupled Model Simulations,” Journal of Climate 20, no. 8 (2010): 1419–1444; F. Giorgi, X. Bi , and J. Pal, “Mean, Interannual Variability and Trends in a Regional Climate Change Experiment over Europe. II: Climate Change Scenarios (2071–2100),” Climate Dynamics 23, nos. 7–8 (2004): 839–858. 6
G. C. Nelson, M. W. Rosegrant, A. Palazzo, I. Gray, C. Ingersoll, R.
Robertson, S. Tokgoz, et al., Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options (Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2010). 7
between Spot and Futures Prices of Agricultural Commodities,” in Commodity Market Review 2009–2010 (Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2010). 8
W. Martin and K. Anderson, “Trade Distortions and Food Price
Surges,” paper prepared for the World Bank–University of Califor- nia, Berkeley, conference “Agriculture for Development—Revisited,” Berkeley, CA, USA, October 1–2, 2010. 9
B. Wright, International Grain Reserves and Other Instruments to
Address Volatility in Grain Markets, Policy Research Working Paper 5028 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2009).
105
M. Hernandez and M. Torero, “Examining the Dynamic Relationship
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