MAY/JUNE 2013


Westminster watch


Gareth Morgan is a political lobbyist and director with Cavendish Communications (www.cavendishpc.co.uk). He is an advisor to the Guild of Travel Management Companies (GTMC)


UNDER PRESSURE Will the government be able to force a cagey opposition to reveal its economic plans?


MY LAST WESTMINSTER WATCH column focused on rail being the area of transport policy where Labour could adopt a radical position – namely, by choosing the East Coast Mainline as its model for how other routes could operate. The political rug has been pulled out from under it somewhat by the Coalition’s announcement in April that the franchise bidding system would begin rolling again – and that the first major franchise up for grabs was not the West Coast Mainline or the Great Western route, but the nationalised East Coast Mainline. This is a prioritisation that has political positioning written all over it. It remains to be seen whether the franchise tender process kicks off in earnest before Labour finalises its policy on rail.


The feeling persists in Labour ranks that rail has the potential to be a dividing line between the parties


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However, the feeling persists in Labour ranks that rail has the potential to be a dividing line between the parties, and this was also reflected in its county council election campaign launch in April: on a platform dominated by claims to be standing up for hard-pressed families against “powerful interests”, we saw a key pledge being: “End rail rip-offs by capping fares increases on every route.” More broadly, the county council elections on May 2 is a hard one for the blue half of the Coalition to come out of well. It dominates the councils that are up for grabs and, in reality, can only fail to match this political high-water mark as its vote is squeezed by Labour in areas such as Nottinghamshire, and UKIP in the


South East. We can expect any loss of councils to be met with glee from the left and a new round of concern from Cameron’s opponents, but the long-term impact of the results will likely be minimal.


In both the points above we


can see election lines that are relevant for the 2015 general election starting to formulate, but the major point of interest is the 2015-16 Spending Review, which will be announced on June 26. This sets the austerity spending limits for the first year after the general election in advance, and in doing so will establish the baseline that Labour will be challenged to match. The key decision in this period will be whether the two Eds accept the Coalition’s imposed baseline.


It is a masterful political move from Osborne as it gets the media to ramp-up the pressure on Labour to reveal its plans. Ed Balls, however, was Gordon


Brown’s chief economic adviser in the run-up to 1997, when Labour made the pledge to stick to Conservative spending levels for the first two years of the next government. The success of this approach in allaying fears among swing voters will be at the forefront of his mind, but so also is the fact that we are still, probably, two years out from a general election with the economy precariously balanced. The next few months, then, will see Labour come under heavy pressure to reveal more of its hand, but a determination within its senior ranks to resist these calls, and for economic commitments to remain vague. For those of us hoping for Labour to nail its colours to the mast on issues like air passenger duty, we will have some time to wait yet. n


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