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TechWaTch By Peter Dizikes
utomation is not likely to elim- inate millions of jobs any time soon, but the U.S. still needs
vastly improved policies if Americans are to build better careers and share prosperity as technological changes occur, according to a new MIT report about the workplace. The report, which represents
the initial findings of MIT’s task force on the work of the future, punc- tures some conventional wisdom and builds a nuanced picture of the evolu- tion of technology and jobs. The likelihood of robots, automa-
tion and artificial intelligence (AI) wiping out huge sectors of the work- force in the near future is exaggerated, the task force concludes, but there is reason for concern about the impact of new technology on the labor market. In recent decades, technology has con- tributed to the polarization of employ- ment, disproportionately helping high-skilled professionals, while re- ducing opportunities for many other workers, and new technologies could exacerbate this trend. Moreover, the report empha-
sizes, at a time of historic income in- equality, a critical challenge is not necessarily a lack of jobs, but the low quality of many jobs and the result- ing lack of viable careers for many people, particularly workers without college degrees. With this in mind, the work of the future can be shaped beneficially by new policies, renewed support for labor, and reformed insti- tutions, not just new technologies. Broadly, the task force concludes, capitalism in the U.S. must address the interests of workers as well as shareholders.
Anxiety and Inequality The core of the task force con-
sists of a group of MIT scholars. Its re- search has drawn upon new data, ex- pert knowledge of many technology sectors and a close analysis of both technology-centered firms and eco- nomic data spanning the postwar era. Unemployment in the U.S. is
low, yet workers have considerable anxiety from multiple sources. One is technology. A 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center found that 65
to 90 percent of respondents in in- dustrialized countries think comput- ers and robots will take over many jobs done by humans, while less than a third think better-paying jobs will result from these technologies. An- other concern for workers is income stagnation. Adjusted for inflation, 92 percent of Americans born in 1940 earned more money than their par- ents, but only about half of people born in 1980 can say that. “The persistent growth in the
quantity of jobs has not been matched by an equivalent growth in job quality,” the task force report states. Applications of technology have fed inequality in recent decades. High-tech innovations have displaced “middle-skilled” workers who perform routine tasks, from office assistants to as- sembly line workers, but these in- novations have complemented the activities of many white collar work- ers in medicine, science and engi- neering, finance, and other fields. Technology has also not dis-
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The persistent growth in the quantity of jobs has not been matched by an equivalent growth in job quality.
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placed lower-skilled service workers, leading to a polarized workforce. Higher-skill and lower-skill jobs have grown, middle-skill jobs have shrunk, and increased earnings have been concentrated among white-col- lar workers.
Innovationvs. “So-So Technology” A big question, then, is what the
next decades of automation have in store. As the report explains, some technological innovations are broad- ly productive, while others are mere- ly “so-so technologies” — a term coined by economists Daron Ace- moglu of MIT and Pascual Restrepo of Boston University to describe tech- nologies that replace workers with- out markedly improving services or increasing productivity. For instance, electricity and
light bulbs were broadly productive, allowing the expansion of other types of work. But automated technology
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greater economic security, and im- proved health and longevity. But whether society realizes this poten- tial, the report notes, depends criti- cally on the institutions that trans- form aggregate wealth into greater shared prosperity instead of rising inequality. On thing the task force does not
foresee is a future where human ex- pertise, judgment and creativity are less essential than they are today. As robots gain flexibility and
situational adaptability, they will certainly take over a larger set of tasks in warehouses, hospitals, and retail stores — such as lifting, stock- ing, transporting, cleaning, as well as awkward physical tasks that re- quire picking, harvesting, stooping, or crouching. The task force members believe
such advances in robotics will dis- place relatively low-paid human tasks and boost the productivity of workers, whose attention will be freed to focus on higher-value-added work. The pace at which these tasks are delegated to machines will be hastened by slowing growth, tight la- bor markets, and the rapid aging of workforces in most industrialized countries, including the U.S. And while machine learning —
image classification, real-time ana- lytics, data forecasting, and more — has improved, it may just alter jobs, not eliminate them. Radiologists do much more than interpret X-rays, for instance. The task force also ob- serves that developers of au- tonomous vehicles, another hot me- dia topic, have been “ratcheting back” their timelines and ambitions over the last year. The challenge for firms going
forward is this: to improve productiv- ity in ways that can lead to greater quality and efficiency that are not just about cutting costs and bringing in marginally better technology. Web:
https://workofthefuture.mit.edu r
allowing for self-checkout at pharma- cies or supermarkets merely replaces workers without notably increasing efficiency for the customer or produc- tivity.
Given the mixed record of the
last four decades, does the advent of robotics and AI herald a brighter fu- ture, or a darker one? The task force suggests the answer depends on how humans shape that future. New and emerging technologies
will raise aggregate economic output and boost wealth, and offer people the potential for higher living stan- dards, better working conditions,
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