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www.us-
tech.com Production
Transparent Conductive Films and Materials: Transitioning
from Old to New By Dr. Khasha Ghaffarzadeh, Research Director, IDTechEx
electronic touchscreens. The IDTechEx Research report “Transparent Conduc- tive Films and Materials 2018-2028: Forecasts, Technologies, Players,” puts this reliance around 85 to 90 percent today. The emergence of new applications has also been slower than many had predicted and hoped. This report finds that so- called “old” applications still make up the vast majority of the market. This reliance must change. In fact, it is about to change. IDTechEx Re-
T
search projects that “new” applications will rise to represent around half of the market within the decade. This change will bring about new opportunities and a renewed sense of excitement to the market.
The Curse of the Old The industry has struggled to significantly break free from the domi-
nance of applications that we label as “old.” These applications include a va- riety of flat touchscreens on LCDs, OLEDs and other display technologies across product categories that include mobile phones, tablets, laptops, moni- tors/all-in-ones, etc. The industry has frequently proven too optimistic about the opening up
of new significant applications. Several years ago, it had forecasted the promi- nence of touch monitors and all-in-ones. This disappointed many, especially ITO alternative makers, because these technologies often commanded clear performance advantages in large surface area devices. Another example was seen in flexible displays. The industry, despite
what IDTechEx argued, underestimated the time required to transition from prototype at a show to full production with good yields and product concepts. The same pattern has also been repeated in the past with other applications, such as organic photovoltaics (OPVs) and OLED lighting. This inability to break free has had adverse consequences. One is that it has
kept the market pie somewhat rigid. This has stifled innovation and has ham- pered the commercial success of alternatives. This, in turn, has meant a more crowded market, both from a technology option and number of supplier perspec- tives, thus intensifying the price pressure and the market share competition. Furthermore, the fortunes of the industry have remained tied to the con-
sumer electronics industry. This has meant repeated boom-and-bust cycles and relentless price pressures. These challenges will continue, so long as this dependency exists. For example, now that sales of Apple are expected to fall, the ripple effects will be felt across the value chain.
Changing of the Guard? Flexible displays are finally about to arrive. There have already been an-
nouncements made in late 2018 from Samsung and Royole. Others have followed or will follow suit. The value chain is also largely in place and the technology is nearly ready. The question of yield and exact production definitions will remain. It may take a few attempts and integration to get the right products into the market and first products will not necessarily be the best. Nonetheless, this par- adigm is here to stay, bringing benefits to those who have traveled the farthest along the flexible display technology learning curve. The impact on TCF/TCM will be interesting. In general, ITO films will
not provide sufficient flexibility. Product concepts require around 0.08 to 0.12 in. (2 to 3 mm) bending radius to achieve foldability. This puts it beyond the realm of ITO performance, opening the space to alternatives. Large-area touch is another promising market. This market was previ-
ously stagnant and was cornered by optical touch sensing solutions. Now the market is picking up and capacitive touch is gaining traction. The main use cases are in educational establishments, businesses and public spaces. The educational establishment market is strongly affected by legislative require- ments and recent trends in China support growth in this sector. Today, silver nanowires are being used. The coating is with wide-format
R2R gravure or slot die, and patterned with laser. Metal mesh on large films is also being offered. Here, manufacturers with a legacy business in plasma display production are particularly active since their depreciated assets and existing know-how give them a cost and time advantage. Other applications are also making some progress. OPVs are in produc-
tion, although the scale is still very small. Most production takes place on nar- row web widths running at low web speeds. Aggregate and individual rev- enues are also low. This technology is also no longer young. The question, however, is still about market need and product definition. The industry has yet to launch a mass product beyond customized low-volume demonstration in which the value of the panel itself is small. OLED lighting is also making slow progress. Mass production of OLED
lighting is challenging, especially given the cost and price reference set by in- organic LEDs. Roll-to-roll production remains especially difficult, despite years of effort and investment. The progress here will remain slow. However,
long-term prospects are good. The transition is gathering pace. Contact: IDTechEx, One Boston Place, Suite 2600, Boston, MA 02108
% 617-577-7890 fax: 617-577-7810 E-mail:
info@idtechex.com Web:
www.idtechex.com r
he market composition of transparent conductive films (TCF) and materi- als (TCM) has not dramatically shifted for some time. It is heavily reliant upon select markets, such as flat, consumer, small- and medium-sized,
March, 2019
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