Projecting forest cover in Madagascar 161
VI are not as effective for conserving subpopulations of lemur species as the previously existing protected areas. Many of these new protected areas are under multi-use management by local communities and NGOs, allowing sustainable extraction of natural resources. In many cases, socio-economic conditions, lack of knowledge or lack of re- sources for management prohibit sustainable utilization of these forests. The challenges of combining extractive re- source management with conservation goals might be too complex to be left to local communities or NGOs with lim- ited means (Gardner et al., 2018; Stoudmann et al., 2023). More positively, our results provide hope that sufficient for- est will remain within protected areas for the next 25+ years to maintain the lemur species currently present there. However, although lemurs can be considered umbrella spe- cies for other forest-dependent taxa, conclusions based on lemur occurrences alone do not necessarily apply to the other higher taxa of Madagascar (Kremen et al., 2008). For the future of the forests and lemurs of Madagascar,
conservation initiatives outside protected areas need to be effective by 2050. Amongst these initiatives, agroforestry and ecological restoration concepts for the reforestation or rehabilitation of degraded land are promising (Holloway, 2003; Birkinshaw et al., 2013; Hending et al., 2018;Donati et al., 2021). These approaches could include planting tree species used by lemurs (Steffens, 2020), planting species of use for people and the endemic biota of Madagascar alike (Konersmann et al., 2022), complementary planting of native and introduced commercial species (Ganzhorn, 1987; Gérard et al., 2015; Lavialle et al., 2015) and stratified planting of multiple-use trees and crops that reduce pressure on forest resources (Manjaribe et al., 2013). These activities would extend suitable habitats for forest-dependent species (not only lemurs), improve habitat suitability and provide buffers and corridors between forest blocks (Waeber et al., 2020;Ralimananaetal., 2022).
Acknowledgements We thank M. Fisher, P.P. Lowry II and a re- viewer for their thoughtful comments on the manuscript. This research received no specific grant from any funding agency or commercial or not-for-profit sectors.
Author contributions Conceptualization: POW, LW, JUG; meth- odology: SCR, FODA, HAR, LW; validation: LW, JUG; analysis: SCR, FODA, HAR, LW, JUG; data curation: SCR, FODA; writing: LW, JUG; supervision and project administration: LW.
Conflicts of interest None.
Ethical standards The research abided by the Oryx guidelines on ethical standards and was approved by the Ethical Standards Committee of the Institute of Animal Cell and Systems Biology (Universität Hamburg, Germany).
Data availability No new data were created or analysed in this study. We reassessed publicly available data as described in the Methods section.
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