160 S. C. Rafanoharana et al.
FIG. 4 (a) Forest cover in Madagascar in 2017, (b) projection of deforestation (from Vieilledent et al., 2021) assuming a constant deforestation rate of 100,000 ha/year (corresponding to 1.2% on the basis of the forest cover of 2010)from 2010 to 2050, and (c) the locations of protected areas, by IUCN category (Table 1). NA, not assigned to an IUCN category. (Readers of the printed journal are referred to the online article for a colour version of this figure.)
Although the present analysis provides some hope for the persistence of the forest ecosystems of Madagascar within the protected area system, our analyses are based on the as- sumption that deforestation rates would not change for the next few decades. If the trend of increasing deforestation rates continues as it did during 2000–2017, we would expect an annual deforestation rate of c. 0.7%in 2050 even in the IUCN category I–IV protected areas (trends could not be calculated for the IUCN categories V and VI protected areas because they were established only in 2015 and long- term deforestation rates were not available). In addition to these possible assumption errors, there is substantial error in defining forest vs non-forest pixels when applying stand- ard remote sensing methods, especially for dry and spiny forests (Rafanoharana et al., 2023). It remains unknown whether these trends in deforestation rates would persist once the information derived from remote sensing has been adapted. Using a similar approach, Vieilledent et al. (2020) applied a constant annual deforestation rate of 100,000 ha during 2010–2050 (corresponding to 1.2%on the basis of the forest cover in 2010) for all of the forests of Madagascar in relation to protection status and environ- mental and socio-economic factors (Fig. 4). At the time of their analyses, IUCN categories V and VI protected areas had not yet been established, and thus their effect could not have been considered.
Apart from methodological uncertainties, the relatively
low deforestation rates observed until 2017 could change as a result of stochastic events. Historically, deforestation rates have increased during times of political crisis (Zinner et al., 2014). A diversity of circumstances, such as the Covid-19 pandemic (Eklund et al., 2022), has the potential to change deforestation rates, although protected area management in Madagascar has shown a high capacity to counteract these expected negative impacts on protected areas (Andrianambinina et al., 2022). Nevertheless, there have been unusual records of forest destruction, such as the re- ported areas of forest burnt after periods with low rainfall in October 2022 at Baie de Baly (9,263 ha), Tsingy de Namoroka (785 ha), Zombitse Vohibasia (1,242 ha), Ankarafantsika (7,341 ha), Manongarivo (733 ha) and Sahamalaza (581 ha), although these primarily concerned de- graded forests. It is also of note that the newprotected areas of IUCN categories V and VI have 5–10 times higher deforest- ation rates than those of categories I–III. The reasons for this and possible countermeasures to be taken to improve the situation were outlined by Gardner et al. (2018).
Conclusion
Our analyses support the notion that the new protected areas in Madagascar belonging to IUCN categories V and
Oryx, 2024, 58(2), 155–163 © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605323001175
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