Conservation research capacity 929


FIG. 1 Modelled relationship for the final model (Table 2) of the number of peer-reviewed conservation research papers (a total of 12,701) produced by primary authors in 41 sub-Saharan African countries during 1987–2017 and (a) agricultural land cover, (b) urban population, (c) literacy rate, (d) population growth rate, (e) log population size, (f) international tourism (% of total exports, in 2016), and (g) GDP (on a purchasing power parity basis divided by population, as of 1 July 2017). Inset graphs show the modelled relationships before back transformation, where this was necessary. Shaded areas indicate one standard error.


TABLE 4 Evaluation of the most important explanatory variables for predicting the number of papers published. All possible models were ranked by AIC, and total weight was calculated by considering the proportion of top models within ΔAIC = 2 of the top model (N = 18 models) where a variable was present. Variables occurring in.70%of models are in bold. The top model had an AIC weight of 0.11.


Explanatory variable Total weight No. of models


Log population size 118 Log area


0.05 Urbanization


Education expenditure Literacy rate


Year of independence Government effectiveness


0.33 0.89 0.05 0.72 0.28 0.28


1


Population growth rate 118 Log GDP 118 Median age


6


16 1


13 5 5


Log tourism 118 Agricultural land cover 118 English as an official language 0.11


2


half of primary authorship (South Africa, USA, UK, Kenya and Ethiopia; Table 6). The USA and UK together ac- counted for 17% of primary authorship (Table 6). Overall, the number of papers increased significantly over time, with an approximately quadratic function (no. of papers =


−5.2 ± 0.83 (year) + 0.45 + 0.027 (year2)+ 18.0, year scaled to 1987 = 0, F2,28 = 870.5,P,0.001, adjusted R2 = 0.98;


Fig. 2). There was a significant increase in the ratio of non-African primary authors to national primary authors over time (0.038 ± 0.004, F1,29 = 73.7,P,0.001, adjusted R2 = 0.71): i.e. a greater proportion of the papers published in 2017 had non-African primary authors. Initially the an- nual rate of change in the number of papers published by national primary authors was steeper than that for non- African authors (2.1 ± 0.81, t1,56 = 2.6,P = 0.011) but in later years the rate of change with year for national authors has become less steep compared to non-African authors


(−0.084 ± 0.026, t1,56 =−3.2,P = 0.0022; overall model test- ing for the interaction of authorship type with year adjusted R2 = 0.97, model without the interaction increases in AIC by 9.5; Fig. 2).


Oryx, 2021, 55(6), 924–933 © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605320000046


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