Chapter 3: Outl00k
Lake Kivu, Serengeti National Park and Nairobi. Here, awareness of the importance of using natural resources sustainably has led to initiatives for green growth and better protection of ecosystems. Eco-tourism in the borderlands of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, Lake Victoria and the Serengeti, prompts better preservation and environmental management through collaboration between governments, the private sector, civil society and NGOs, as it is an increasingly important source of income. These initiatives slowly spread to other parts of East Africa. Yet, as economic growth in the other East African countries continues, aid programmes to help South Sudan and Somalia are initiated within the region, eventually leading to an end of the seemingly interminable conflicts there. In the 2040s, well- functioning governments are helping these countries to get back on track.
Source: Palazzo et al. 2014
Populations and urbanization are on the rise. Cities located in the proximity of valuable resources are particularly increasing in size. Natural resources are heavily exploited, and as ecosystems deteriorate and compromise the needs of local populations, conflicts between companies and local communities arise. Agriculture focuses mostly on high- value cash crops. Land is increasingly degraded as a result of mining and farming activities and the appropriation of space for infrastructure. Because of the focus on cash crops, overall food security is declining in the remote rural parts of the region. Mining activities and large-scale farm activities have a severe impact on freshwater resources, leading to deterioration of freshwater ecosystems. As populations increase, fisheries are also increasing, and, due to a lack of central governance, unsustainable fishery methods are widely used. As a consequence of greater industrial activity, carbon emissions are increasing excessively. Air quality in urban areas is getting worse, particularly around mining sites and processing plants.
Local populations that are not benefiting from the activities of the big mining and farming companies are engaging in forestry in mostly informal and unsustainable ways, leading to further degradation of forest ecosystems and biodiversity loss. The lack of effective and coordinated governance leads to poor law enforcement across the continent. This has a
negative effect on protected areas, as they are increasingly subjected to illegal resource extraction and poaching. Due to growing pressure on ecosystems, which leads to a diminishing surface area as well as fragmentation, species diversity is decreasing, as are ecosystem services.
From 2030 to 2063, a large portion of the social and environmental problems that were already apparent in 2030 have worsened. This has prompted many of the big international companies to leave Africa in search of more attractive places for investment. In response, local enterprises begin to increase in number. In some parts of the continent, joint efforts of governments, private sector and civil voluntary organizations have emerged to counter the negative spiral in which the continent has found itself. In these countries, green growth is promoted. In fact, as early as in 2010, the first seeds towards green growth were already planted, making Ghana the country with the second highest gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in 2025, quickly followed by United Republic of Tanzania and Gabon. This has inspired people and governments all over the continent. In the 2050s, Angola, Benin, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, Togo and Uganda are catching up on those developments. However, many parts of Africa are still plagued by poverty, hunger and conflict, amplified by environmental degradation and the effects of climate change.
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