Chapter 3: Outl00k
Although agricultural production continues to be a primary focus, prompting large-scale
land acquisitions driven
by centralized planning strategies, increased domestic consumption through a rising middle class intensifies pressures on coastal and marine resources.
institutions take a top-down approach, increasing production from large-scale commercial fisheries in order to meet demand. While this improves social and economic conditions in the short term, it erodes long-term sustainability and results in significant impacts on marine resources and biodiversity. In addition, large-scale, highly coordinated food and energy production in the hands of a few can mean that past social inequalities persist, particularly in North and Southern Africa, unless properly managed. The trend in democratization can temper this by leading to improved civil society engagement and increased recognition of the importance of the rule of law, in turn strengthening both justice and social equity.
With a primary focus on domestic needs, the centralized planning and targeted economic development seen in this scenario improve overall socio-economic conditions and societal well-being. State-led institutions expand mining, oil and gas development while continuing to focus on agricultural production and trade in primary resources. In order to increase trade and economic cooperation between countries, leaders agree to soften borders and trade tariffs, building on the successes of the South African Development Community (SADC) and Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). The increased movement of goods and services across Africa’s hinterland, however, increases the vulnerability of land, water and biota to pollution and degradation. While there is a rapid increase in migration to urban areas, coordinated government planning ensures that the necessary infrastructure is available and minimum requirements for clean water and sanitation are met. This requires large water withdrawals from natural sources, leading to further pressure on freshwater
State-led
ecosystems, especially in North and �outhern Africa, where there is a strong reliance on groundwater sources that take a long time to replenish.
Despite the advent of large-scale infrastructure development that relies heavily on natural resource extraction, leaders are driven by the new global agenda for sustainable development and recognize the co-benefits of mitigating climate change and improving air quality through emission reductions. There is therefore a doubling of efforts to decouple emissions from economic growth. This is achieved by reducing the carbon intensity of energy, having an overall positive impact on public health, particularly in areas near power plants.
The location of infrastructure investments is also well managed to minimize impacts on sensitive ecosystems, although land degradation continues to increase due to large-scale infrastructure and agricultural expansion. As an added adverse side effect, the prevalence of large-scale infrastructure increases vulnerability to potential shocks and climate variability as larger numbers of people rely on that infrastructure for basic services.
While it is recognized that sustainable management of shared resources can be achieved through centralized planning and regional cooperation, there is an initial lack of coordination in regional strategic and spatial planning which leads to certain resource-scarce areas being negatively affected. This is most prevalent in the case of water, as increased domestic demand coupled with large-scale development puts pressure on freshwater resources, resulting in inequalities between areas with abundant resources and those without. However, strong effective leadership recognizes the importance of regional integration and pooled resources in this scenario, opting to band together as good neighbours for mutual benefit, with the Central African Forests Convergence Plan (Box 3.2.1) being an example.
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