Chapter 3: Outl00k


Figure 3.1.8: Africa’s energy infrastructure programme


the maximum temperature exceeds 35°C, heat waves, and days of high fire danger (Engelbrecht et al. 2015; Niang et al. 2014; Vizy and Cook 2012). Impacts are likely to be significant across a wide range of sectors, including agriculture with, for example, decreases in the maize yield anticipated in Southern and East Africa (Thornton et al. 2011); loss of biodiversity, with bush encroachment in the grasslands of the African highlands (Engelbrecht and Engelbrecht 2015; Midgley and Bond 2015); and water security challenges, through enhanced evaporation from reservoirs and more evapotranspiration from the land surface (Engelbrecht et al. 2015; Conway and Schipper 2011). By exceeding critical human and animal thermal-comfort


levels,


oppressive


temperatures are likely to have a direct impact on human and animal health (Garland et al. 2015). The energy sector will also to be affected, with an increase in energy demand for achieving human comfort in houses and factories.


Source: AfDB et al. 2012


3.1.3. Climate change Climate will have a big impact on Africa’s future, with serious implications on the availability of arable land and freshwater. The region’s vulnerability to the impacts of future climate change is worsened by its comparatively low adaptive capacity and the relatively strong climate change signals that are projected for the region (Niang et al. 2014).


Temperatures in the region have been rising rapidly over the past five decades, at around twice the global rate in the subtropical parts of Southern and North Africa (Engelbrecht et al. 2015; Jones et al. 2012). Further increases are projected for the 21st


century (Engelbrecht et al. 2015; Niang et al.


2014; James and Washington 2013). For example, in a low-mitigation future for the period 2071–2100, a rise of 4 to 6°C is likely to occur in Africa’s subtropics relative to 1971–2000, with smaller increases projected for the tropics. These increases are associated with a rising incidence of extreme temperature events, such as very hot days when


A drier future is projected for Southern Africa not only in terms of total rainfall, but also in terms of more frequent occurrence of dry spells and seasons of drought (Engelbrecht et al. 2015; Niang et al. 2014). At the same time, projections of a general increase in rainfall over East Africa also indicate an increase in large-scale flood events (Niang et al. 2014;


111


Under a low-mitigation future, Africa will have to deal with the adverse impacts of rapidly rising temperatures and associated extreme events during a period considered particularly important for its development (2021–2065) (African Union Commission 2015). A high-mitigation climate future may hold significant advantages for Africa.


Africa’s rainfall futures are less certain than the corresponding temperature futures (Niang et al. 2014). However, a generally drier climate is likely for the Mediterranean coast of North Africa, for the winter rainfall region of southwestern South Africa, and the larger summer rainfall region of Southern Africa (Niang et al. 2014; James and Washington 2013; Engelbrecht et al. 2015). General increases in precipitation are projected for East Africa, while over West Africa and the Sahel, there is a mixed signal of both increases and decreases.

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