GEO-6 Regional Assessment for Africa


Number of species


Box 3.2.1: Land-use change for the Congo Basin


Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, plus the conservation of forest carbon stocks, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon in stocks (REDD+) is of increasing importance to member countries of the Central African Forestry Commission (COMIFAC). REDD+ and related policies will have impacts on future land use and in turn countries’ approaches to addressing and respecting the UNFCCC REDD+ safeguards, as well as their efforts to achieve the Aichi Biodiversity Targets.


600 400 200 0


Base


Loss >40% NO PA


NO FC Loss 5-40%


Note: The figure shows the number of species losing habitat within the region under scenarios where: there is no land- use change in protected areas or forest concessions (Base); protected areas do not prevent land-use change (No PA); forest concessions do not prevent land-use change (No FC), there is an expansion in protected areas (PA+) or agricultural yields increase (Yield growth)


Yield growth


In the Congo Basin, the management of Forest Concessions (FCs) and Protected Areas (PAs), as well as increasing agricultural yields, are potentially important options for achieving REDD+ objectives. Through the REDD-PAC project, an economic land-use model (GLOBIOM) has been used to assess the potential impacts of changes in effectiveness of FCs and PAs, and of increases in agricultural yields, in preventing land-use change. The model projections show that, even assuming full enforcement of the current protected areas and forest concessions (i.e. no land-use change within them), land-use change is likely to cause substantial adverse impacts on biodiversity and related ecosystem services by 2030 (with over 370 of 2115 mammals, amphibians and birds projected to lose over 10 per cent of their potential habitat). The Congo Basin is home to several threatened Great Ape Species, which have the potential to support the development of eco- tourism activities, a key ecosystem service. Likely changes in Great Apes habitat are assessed by combining information on projected change in forest cover (2010-2030) with information on potential species occurrence. To examine further the impacts of forest concessions, protected areas and changes in agricultural yields, the model was run for scenarios in which forest concessions and protected areas do not constrain land-use change. In this scenario protected areas coverage expands to 17 per cent and one in which agricultural yields increase.


The results suggest that the role of both PAs and FCs in maintaining forest cover may play an important part in conserving species habitat. Increasing agricultural yields on existing croplands, has a potential to decrease the need for further deforestation, depending on how it is implemented. Combinations of these approaches along with other measures may be key to successful REDD+.


Source: UNEP-WCMC based on their work with REDD-PAC (see Tadoum et al. 2016) 118

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