Chapter 3: Outl00k
3.2.2 Going Global Africa’s socio-economic growth is based on the extraction and export of commodities, including timber, minerals, oil and gas. Both the Africa 2063 Vision and the Africa Mining Vision 2050 are central, as they seek to increase the benefit that Africa receives from its natural capital for the prosperity of its people. Areas with abundant resources develop their primary resources industries quickly, but there are risks to ecosystems from the expansionist nature under this scenario, and its focus on exports means that there is potential for exacerbating inequalities, as those with access to foreign investment get ahead of the game.
Sub-Saharan Africa continues to increase its exports as it did at the turn of the century, when it gained market share everywhere except in Latin America. At that time (1996– 2010), the region’s strongest increase in market share was in the Asia-Pacific market, where Africa expanded its share from below 0.8 per cent to 1.2 per cent (International Trade Centre 2012). At the same time, intra-regional trade expanded from 9 per cent to 14 per cent, indicating strong regional integration (International Trade Centre 2012). Large regional projects with global support are developed, for example the Grand Inga Mega-project (Box 3.2.2).
Under the Going Global scenario, unexploited oil and gas fields are developed to ensure greater value of exports, and the AfDB PIDA planned development corridors become a reality. There is a large focus on agricultural intensification, increasing the use of forestry resources and aquaculture. This focus on a green economy rather than a blue economy results in less pressure on marine resources, and, where there has been an increase in the export of marine resources, this has been mainly from large-scale aquaculture projects, so fisheries are starting to recover. However, this has also meant that artisanal fishers have been forced either to enter the formal fisheries sector or to seek alternative employment in some of the large-scale development projects that are underway. At the same time, centralized planning and a recognition of the importance of healthy ecosystem functioning has led to an increase in the number of protected areas. Outside these protected zones, however,
there is little to no biodiversity, and species are concentrated in a few hot-spots. A benefit of the increase in protected areas is a boom in eco-tourism as foreign investment flows into luxury resorts – particularly in East and Southern Africa – as Africa becomes the last continent with areas of pristine environment. By 2040, Africa is the centre of the world’s eco- tourism industry. While this leads to job creation in many areas, most of the wealth still makes rich overseas investors richer and does not contribute as significantly as it could to the local economy.
With a focus on planned development corridors and economic processing zones, certain key urban areas develop rapidly, with Kampala, Johannesburg, Lagos, Accra and Nairobi fast becoming global technology and innovation hubs, increasing their global connectivity. In order to maximize production of export crops such as coffee, tea, cocoa and tobacco, many of the 33 million 2-hectare farms are merged, resulting in the loss of land for some rural farmers, who in turn flock to cities to find jobs. This results in an increase in the informal sector economy, but the rise in foreign investment and concomitant advances in city governance mean that those living in cities have access to cleaner technologies, which prompts a vast improvement in (urban) health. However, the need for transporting goods over vast distances across the continent means that carbon emissions also increase, and industrialization decreases air quality and increases health expenses. In rural areas where most of the large-scale development is taking place, no progress is made towards increasing access to both clean air and water, although due to the emphasis on agriculture, the continent is now food secure; in some countries the majority of rural people now buy their food rather than growing it themselves.
3.2.3 All in Together
This scenario is characterized by national sovereignty and action at local levels, where there is widespread community action towards more sustainable resource use, more climate-smart agricultural practices and more integrated conservation efforts, supported by international funding from donor countries, social entrepreneurs and other funding sources. However, the scenario is also characterized
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