WESTMINSTER WATCH GARETH MORGAN


GAME OF JEOPARDY O


Whatever the outcome of June’s EU referendum, there will be consequences for the travel industry


riginally, the campaigning around the European


Union (EU) referendum was envisaged as being a contained and measured affair conducted among colleagues, and always with a view to coming together after to continue the governing mission. It now seems this was wishful thinking. The campaign, on the Conservative side in particular, has degenerated to a point where, among many incidents, serving ministers are claiming that the NHS is underfunded because of freedom of movement and the National Living Wage will encourage immigration; and, in some quarters, even accusing Prime Minister David Cameron of using £9 million of public funds to send an EU ‘facts’


leaflet to every household to distract from coverage of his tax affairs.


It is likely that in the run-up to June 23 this will only get worse, and the ability to come together on June 24 is put in serious jeopardy. Will the PM, when he sits down for his next reshuffle, really forget the attacks he received from his own ministers? And if the ‘out’ campaign lose, will they just shrug their shoulders and forget the perceived unfairness of the government’s campaigning? It’s going to be tough.


REVERBERATIONS But the ‘we won’t forget’ mantra has the potential to reverberate and affect policy more broadly, and it’s here that it becomes interesting for the travel industry. One of the first major decisions likely to be taken forward


Will the PM, when he sits down for his next reshuffle, really forget the attacks from his own ministers?


post-May elections and June’s referendum is around airport capacity. The government has been reticent to commit to a specific date for the decision (following its review of air quality issues, of course) but we have heard rumours from well-placed sources that the summer is likely. How is the EU referendum fallout going to impact this?


PM David Cameron: the EU debate is proving a divisive issue for the Conservatives


Consider Zac Goldsmith and his stock with the government. He is potentially the biggest political reason the airport decision was delayed, as having the putative Conservative mayoral candidate at loggerheads with the Conservative government over Heathrow would scupper the chances of holding on to the mayoralty. Post-election and having come out for ‘out’, will he still be able to twist the PM’s arm or will he be irrelevant to a leader weary of compromise with people who can never be pleased?


38 BBT MAY/JUNE 2016


Or if we do decide to leave, will European air quality standards that have been held up as an inviolable red line by Heathrow’s opponents still hold as much sway?


Boris Johnson has attracted genuine anger from within No 10 with his ‘out’ support, interpreted as a careerist challenge to Cameron. If an ‘in’ vote is secured, how much sway will his opposition to Heathrow have with a PM and Chancellor who he has openly defied?


Look, for instance, at the


West Country caucus of MPs, led by the ardent ‘Brexiteer’ Liam Fox MP, who have been particularly vocal in their demands that the government acts on Sir Howard Davies’ Airports Commission Report and expand the hub. We have been told that they have taken umbrage at Heathrow having publicly come out in favour of ‘in’ and suggested that in response they may be less active in support of the airport’s campaign. That an infrastructure project of national importance (and to their region) would be sacrificed in such a way is nothing short of remarkable and shows the depth of passion among those engaged in the referendum fight.


In lobbying, the technical term for this is ‘an absolute mess’, and it is going to take some doing to pick up all these pieces and focus the Conservative Party on governing again.


Gareth Morgan is a political lobbyist and director with Cavendish Communications (www.cavendishpc.co.uk). He is an advisor to the Guild of Travel Management Companies (GTMC).


BUYINGBUSINESSTRAVEL.COM


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52  |  Page 53  |  Page 54  |  Page 55  |  Page 56  |  Page 57  |  Page 58  |  Page 59  |  Page 60  |  Page 61  |  Page 62  |  Page 63  |  Page 64  |  Page 65  |  Page 66  |  Page 67  |  Page 68  |  Page 69  |  Page 70  |  Page 71  |  Page 72  |  Page 73  |  Page 74  |  Page 75  |  Page 76  |  Page 77  |  Page 78  |  Page 79  |  Page 80  |  Page 81  |  Page 82  |  Page 83  |  Page 84  |  Page 85  |  Page 86  |  Page 87  |  Page 88  |  Page 89  |  Page 90  |  Page 91  |  Page 92  |  Page 93  |  Page 94  |  Page 95  |  Page 96  |  Page 97  |  Page 98  |  Page 99  |  Page 100  |  Page 101  |  Page 102  |  Page 103  |  Page 104  |  Page 105  |  Page 106  |  Page 107  |  Page 108  |  Page 109  |  Page 110  |  Page 111  |  Page 112  |  Page 113  |  Page 114  |  Page 115  |  Page 116  |  Page 117  |  Page 118  |  Page 119  |  Page 120  |  Page 121  |  Page 122  |  Page 123  |  Page 124  |  Page 125  |  Page 126  |  Page 127  |  Page 128