Those worried about the damage being done to the environment might welcome the prospect of slower growth, and might even be able to ride-out the decline in comfort. After all you can still make a good living in Jersey, particularly if you are supporting the property bubble. But a successful economy needs more than to just move money around. As an island, Jersey needs exports, which will mainly be of services, although more physical exports would be welcome as well. At the very least, it would help to fill the empty cargo ships returning to the UK after supplying the Island with virtually all that it needs. It seems that even the supply of mushrooms can be disrupted by ships delayed by weather, leaving shops with empty shelves in a matter of hours. The Island’s famous farming industry must be too busy watching those valuable potatoes growing to think about supplying a few mushrooms.


Some Islanders are confident that the government are on the case and will come up with the solutions to the many problems we face. They are certainly trying, and I do mean ‘trying’. We’ve recently had a new-look government plan from the Council of Ministers which clearly sets out where they intend to invest over the next few years and where the money is coming from, or at least where it is hoped it will come from.


The past success of the economy helps to foster this complacency even though it is obvious that we - like other similar jurisdictions - face an uncertain economic future. Jersey has managed to scrape through all of the ups and downs, going back centuries according to the history books. No sooner had knitting lost its appeal, than the Island’s economic magic produced cider making, followed by cod fishing, ship building, agriculture, tourism and now financial services. Let’s hope the magic lasts long enough to pick up the next ‘big thing’ before financial services becomes a scrawny golden goose.


In the meantime a lot of lip service has been paid for decades for the need to grow and diversify the economy. As is often the case, however, this has not been matched by much action. This is graphically illustrated by the recent Government Plan. Yes, ‘a sustainable, vibrant economy’ is one of the five strategic priorities identified by the Council of Ministers, but those priorities cover such a vast area of government and society that they are pretty meaningless and there is no way of prioritizing them. It may be good to hear that government experts think further support for the sport of rugby will provide economic benefits, but that is not going to give the economy the significant boost or new direction that is needed.


Government priorities, therefore, continue to be a bit ‘pick and mix’ and it is unwise to expect progress on all fronts. Really what the Government intends to do with their spanking new plan is what all Jersey governments have tried to do in the past - balance budgets by cutting public spending to the bone and hope that increased efficiency will make up for any possible damage. Anything left over from the reserves needed to prevent a possible future collapse is put into the Council of Ministers’ strategic priorities, or at least some of them.


Those concerned about the future of the economy will be heartened, therefore, by the inclusion in the plan of the Future Economy Programme, although there are few details yet as to what this actually means. It looks like this has only been classified as a priority by a new council of ministers coming in and trying to start again from scratch. Well, continuity was never highly valued by Jersey governments.


Most politicians understand the very serious challenges facing Jersey, because many of them are very similar to the past and to those facing other communities. An ageing population is an obvious example, but there are some more specific risks facing Jersey. The Island’s leading international financial industry has to continue to adapt to meet the changing environment facing all IFCs, and at considerable cost. But the days of sitting back and watching the money flood in are long-gone, and so too are the super-profits. The industry has changed from a near-total reliance on the banking industry which was very good news when banking was booming. Now the finance sector is only partly reliant on banking, and has been forced to concentrate on trusts, companies and wealth management. This has been a considerable success but all those activities are not only more labour and skills intensive, but they are not always as profitable. So the sector continues to be dominant but it is not growing as fast as Islanders have come to expect or rely upon. Certainly, it will be hard to keep up with the demands and high expectations of the Island as a whole.


Another specific risk facing Jersey in the year 2020 is the complacency unwittingly fostered by a government keen to put as positive a spin on the situation as their army of expert communicators can produce. They do not tell lies, but they are not there to highlight government failings either.


Page 50 52 Smart Island


Unfortunately, a programme to boost the economy should have been launched a long time ago if we expect any impact in the next couple of years. The alarm bells started ringing ages ago and people started tut-tutting, but not much else happened. That is probably because Jersey’s political system makes long-term planning very difficult, even though each new government insists that is what they are doing.


Never mind, better late than never, and it is obviously good news that the government is at least planning for a new economy. The sad thing is that there was very little evidence of this in last year’s grand debate in the States about the plan.


There was, however, evidence that the Council of Ministers does not really care as much about the future of the economy as perhaps they should. For example, a huge amount of emphasis in the Government Plan 2020 - 2023 has gone into the laudable strategy of putting children first. Some might consider this pledge either meaningless or obvious, but it was the one that most excited the authors of the plan. It may not be a very scientific measure but this nearly 200-page document contained the word ‘children’ 176 times but ‘economy’ got only 107 mentions. Even ‘environment’ was only referred to on 65 occasions. It makes you wonder where the money is to come from to make putting children first actually mean something.


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