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ANALYSIS 19


during the last recession is the biggest market dip ever reported by Kline. The only other time Kline noted a market decrease was a 0.3% falloff in 1991 amid another recession. Previously forecast to grow at a CAGR of


3.8% through 2023, Kline has revised its forecasts for the $75 billion US market due to the unfolding crisis. New forecasts, published by Kline in a special report on the topic, indicate a decline of 2.5% in 2020 as the most likely outcome, with the best-case scenario reflecting a 1.5% gain and the worst-case scenario at an 8.1% drop. “Given the unprecedented situation that


is unfolding globally as both a health crisis as well as a financial one, it is not surprising that the beauty market should experience its worst performance now,” said Carrie Mellage, vice president of Kline’s Consumer Products Practice. “Even our worst-case scenario of -8% probably does not feel steep enough given the dark days we are all living, but there are enough essential categories in the mix to keep the market stable.” “The cosmetics market will undoubtedly


suffer in 2020 and in the years to come, but we expect it to recover within three to five years as it has in all past recessions,” says Mellage. “Compared to other industries, the beauty market is fairly recession-proof,


recessionary times. Perhaps we will have another winner in the mix this time too,” adds Mellage.


Looking ahead... Nobody has experienced anything like this before, so we are all in the dark. Currently we can only extrapolate on small indicators and use ‘most likely’ scenarios to predict even a few months into the future. Despite the heartache and loss of life


seen by far too many people throughout 2020 so far, there are some positives to cling to. Pollution, or lack of it, was one of the first large-scale transformations noticed by city-dwellers across the world. It is probably too hopeful to expect this to be a permanent change, but will this make people more conscious of the pollution when industry returns along with the smog? Another subtler change perhaps will be


and its products will continue to be desired by consumers, both for meeting basic needs as well as an indulgence. Historically, the lipstick theory has proven true, with lipsticks (during the four recessions from 1973 through 2001) and eye makeup (in the most recent 2008-2009 recession) performing exceptionally well during


consumers with a far more advanced scientific understanding and vocabulary. The pandemic has sent millions of people on a crash course of virology, epidemiology, biology, and pharmaceutical chemistry, with statistical analysis and many other disciplines thrown in along the way. This could change the way brands and other large organisations communicate with consumers and how consumers analyse the products they buy in the future.


PC


June 2020


PERSONAL CARE EUROPE


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