INSIGHT UNITED STATES


Election betting PredictIt


PredictIt, one of the most widely followed political forecasting markets, may be forced to shut down in February after a US regulator withdrew its permission for it to operate. So what does the future hold for gambling on elections in the US?


In October 2020 it was reported that more than US$1bn had been bet on the winner of the US Presidential election race around the world even before polling day.


Part of the reason for the huge surge in bets was Covid which took so many other betting options off the table, plus the divisive nature of then incumbent Donald Trump. One punter bet £1 million on Joe Biden to be the next president with the third biggest wager in Betfair’s history (former UK politician, Nigel Farage, lost £1,000 as he bet on a Trump win). Te closely fought election brought in £567m in bets, making it the largest event of any kind in the platform’s history.


Bets have already been placed for the upcoming Presidential election, with rising Republican star, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, currently in the lead. Bookmakers are also offering a few more outlandish (and quite terrifying) options for the next President of the US, including Joe Rogan, Kayne West and Elon Musk.


According to a paper published in 2004, written by researchers from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill betting on US elections is by no means new. Te paper found that “a large, active, and highly public market for betting on presidential elections existed over much of US history before the Second World War”. Tese bets were organised at stock exchanges via brokers and brokers would “call out bid-and-ask odds as if trading securities.” Tese were particularly popular in New York, but also extended to most major cities. In addition those offering the bets


WIRE / PULSE / INSIGHT / REPORTS P67


invariably got it right. Indeed, in the 15 elections between 1884 and 1940, the mid-October betting favourite won 11 times (73 per cent) and the underdog won only once (Wilson in 1916).


PREDICTION MARKETS


In the United States, federal law prohibits gambling on local or national elections. However, a type of betting on elections has been allowed for some time now. A small number of academic sites have allowed people to wager against other people’s own predictions. Tese are called prediction markets: a market


Bets have already been placed for the upcoming


Presidential election, with rising


Republican star, Florida Gov. Ron


DeSantis, currently in the lead.


Bookmakers are also offering a few more outlandish (and quite terrifying) options for the next President of the US, including Joe Rogan, Kayne West and Elon Musk.


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52  |  Page 53  |  Page 54  |  Page 55  |  Page 56  |  Page 57  |  Page 58  |  Page 59  |  Page 60  |  Page 61  |  Page 62  |  Page 63  |  Page 64  |  Page 65  |  Page 66  |  Page 67  |  Page 68  |  Page 69  |  Page 70  |  Page 71  |  Page 72  |  Page 73  |  Page 74  |  Page 75  |  Page 76  |  Page 77  |  Page 78  |  Page 79  |  Page 80  |  Page 81  |  Page 82  |  Page 83  |  Page 84  |  Page 85  |  Page 86  |  Page 87  |  Page 88  |  Page 89  |  Page 90  |  Page 91  |  Page 92  |  Page 93  |  Page 94  |  Page 95  |  Page 96  |  Page 97  |  Page 98  |  Page 99  |  Page 100  |  Page 101  |  Page 102  |  Page 103  |  Page 104  |  Page 105  |  Page 106  |  Page 107  |  Page 108  |  Page 109  |  Page 110  |  Page 111  |  Page 112  |  Page 113  |  Page 114  |  Page 115  |  Page 116  |  Page 117  |  Page 118  |  Page 119  |  Page 120  |  Page 121  |  Page 122  |  Page 123  |  Page 124  |  Page 125  |  Page 126  |  Page 127  |  Page 128  |  Page 129  |  Page 130  |  Page 131  |  Page 132  |  Page 133  |  Page 134  |  Page 135  |  Page 136  |  Page 137  |  Page 138  |  Page 139  |  Page 140  |  Page 141  |  Page 142  |  Page 143  |  Page 144  |  Page 145  |  Page 146  |  Page 147  |  Page 148  |  Page 149  |  Page 150  |  Page 151  |  Page 152  |  Page 153  |  Page 154  |  Page 155  |  Page 156  |  Page 157  |  Page 158  |  Page 159  |  Page 160  |  Page 161  |  Page 162