INSIGHT BRAZIL
“Studies say that the regulation of games would generate R$23bn in the first year. With these
resources, we would have an educational compensation programme for children who have been out of school
since the pandemic,” he said. However, he added that this was a personal opinion and he was not
defending the regulation of gambling as a government sanctioned project.
Full-scale casinos anywhere near the rainforest are probably off the cards as Lula has promised to reverse Amazon deforestation in Brazil. However, a few members of the transition team are pro-reform, which could signal the direction Lula might take.
Edinho Silva, Lula’s communication coordinator, came out in support of the regulation of gambling in November. Speaking on television, Silva argued that regulating gambling would be a way to generate additional tax income in order to fund educational programmes.
“Studies say that the regulation of games would generate R$23bn in the first year. With these resources, we would have an educational compensation programme for children who have been out of school since the pandemic,” he said. However, he added that this was a personal opinion and he was not defending the regulation of gambling as a government sanctioned project.
In December, Deputy Felipe Carreras was chosen as a member of Lula’s transition team. Carreras will form part of the working group that will refer issues related to tourism for assessment to the next administration. Deputy Carreras
P98 WIRE / PULSE / INSIGHT / REPORTS
has been a long time supporter of change and has gone on record several times arguing for reform.
However, theses are mere crumbs and do not provide anything concrete in terms of the direction the government will take. In fact, a thorough search for Lula’s past comments on gambling turns up practically nothing. For example, before the election in August, CNN asked the presidential candidates for their position was when it came to legalszing gambling in the country. Both Lula and Bolsonaro failed to respond, as did the majority of the other candidates.
Te reality is that gambling continues to be a hugely controversial issue and it is simply too hot to handle in such divided times. Evangelical leaders have repeatedly come out against any liberalisation of the market. At the same time left-leaning candidates see gambling as posing serious risks for the more vulnerable sectors of society. Bolsonaro meanwhile will continue to play a pivotal role in the passage of legislation. With Bolsonaro still very much in the picture, he could seek to quash any moves to legalise gambling with no political cost to himself.
GAMBLING EXPANSION IS HAPPENING REGARLESS
Before the bingo hall scandals, Lula had remained tight-lipped on the issue of gambling and, after the scandal, no progress was made during the remainder of his presidency. Instead, during his term of office the lottery, Caixa Econômica Federal, consolidated its position. Since then its attempts to privatise certain products have failed.
States, in the meantime, are going their own way. In September 2020, the Supreme Court of Brazil ruled that the federal government's lottery monopoly was unconstitutional, paving the way for states to develop state lotteries for each of Brazil's 26 states, plus and one federal district, as long as they complied with federal regulations. Tis means that current operators can extend their offerings and states will begin to roll out their own lottery products within their own state borders. States are doing just that meaning that we will see a much more diverse gaming offer on a state by state level over the coming years.
Federal gambling legislation
continues to be contemplated as a way to meet the newly imposed increase on minimum wages for nurses and other programmes. However, it became increasingly unlikely that action would be taken over the issue of gambling ahead of the new legislature taking office in January, which proved to be the case. Tis meant that Congress was unable to pass the bill, needed approval from both chambers, before the end of the year.
So what happens now? Lula needs to make concessions and form alliances in order to pass his agenda in Congress. Of all the battles to pick it’s unlikely that Lula will choose a pro-gambling bill. Even if he did, it looks unlikely that such a contentious bill would be able to get the support it needs to be green lit. In addition, Bill 442/91 would open up full-scale IRs, which is something that is hard to imagine Lula championing, no matter how impoverished his citizens become.
Te idea that gambling could have finally been given the go ahead under Bolsonaro was always far fetched, given his reliance on his evangelical support base. Te possibility that things will be any different under Lula is just as remote. In fact, ironically both politicians are quite similar in this regard, as they are far too politically astute to even talk about such a divisive issue, let alone take the lead and push for reform.
Federal gambling legislation continues to be contemplated as a way to meet the newly imposed increase on
minimum wages for nurses and other programmes.
However, it became increasingly unlikely that action would be taken over the issue of gambling ahead of the new legislature taking office in January, which
proved to be the case.
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