Long‐term effect of over‐supplementation 567


TABLE 1 Population parameters for the whole metapopulation of the Apollo butterfly Parnassius apollo in the Pieniny Mountains, Poland (Fig. 1) during 1991–2019.


Year


Number observed in the wild


1991 23 1992 43 1993 50 1994 87 1995 81 1996 127 1997 289 1998 411 1999 362 2000 367 2001 408 2002 527 2003 480 2004 107 2005 149 2006 189 2007 243 2008 209 2009 225 2010 167 2011 233 2012 190 2013 212 2014 152 2015 286 2016 217 2017 209 2018 287 2019 182


Number of captive-reared introduced into the wild


0 24


656 103 333 329 408 268 236 269 320 0 0


360 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


1Using Craig’s method (Seber, 1982).


Estimated wild


population1 26


44 60 94 83


175 660 916 824 817 932


1,236 1,028 406 534 534 671 607 597 430 637 390 504 383 681 532 482 738 428


Estimated growth rate


0.69


−0.12 −0.87 −0.58 −0.58


−0.14 −0.30 −0.23 −0.14 −0.01 −0.17 −0.61 −0.30


−0.10 −0.02 −0.28


0.31


0.00 0.26


0.48


−0.39 0.29


−0.24 0.78


−0.22 −0.09


−0.42


Modelled scenarios Figures 2–3 illustrate the modelling results. The correlations between the modelled population growth and the population abundance estimates based on the field data (Table 2) varied between R = 0.43 and R = 0.85 (Fig. 3, Table 2). The highest correlation was achieved by the model with the shifted carrying capacity and no supplementation (Scenario 2:WO+ shift). For con- secutive years, analysis of the differences between the population abundance estimated from field data and that predicted by the models shows that the difference is at the same level for the whole study period only for the WO+ shift scenario. For each of the other scenarios there is at least one regime shift in the level of differences (Fig. 4).


FIG. 2 Population abundance changes and the regime shift of this parameter from 1990 to 2019. The regime line represents the value around which the population abundance fluctuates.


decrease, the estimated mean regime was 1,294, afterwards it was 716; accordingly, carrying capacities K1 and K2 were set to these values. The difference between the average absolute


Discussion


The results suggest that of the six population growth sce- narios, the one involving a substantial reduction in habitat carrying capacity best fits the data. This is expected: the


Oryx, 2022, 56(4), 564–571 © The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605321000296 0.53


FIG. 3 Changes in the abundance of the restored population and theoretical scenarios (a) including and (b) not including supplementation with captive-reared individuals, from 1990 to 2019. See text for details of the six scenarios.


residual values of the neighbouring regimes was significant (F = 15.9876,df = 5,P,0.0001).


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