THE HERALD FRIDAY FEBRUARY 3 2017


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33 Politics


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ideal time for Labour, at a 21st century high water-mark in terms of their popularity in Wales. The situation is much less favourable for Labour now. Their poll ratings are now about twenty points lower. It seems inevitable that Labour will be on the defensive, and they are likely to lose ground. Their one saving grace – as it always seems to be in Wales – might be the weakness of their opponents in many places. Conservatives: The Conservatives


are in government at the UK level, which would normally predict them doing poorly in the local elections. But for a party well into the mid- term stage they are performing remarkably strongly in the polls. So it is difficult to know what to expect. We should probably also note that the Tory performance in local council by-elections in recent years has been patchy at best. So we should perhaps expect relatively modest overall gains,


with significant variation in local performances. Plaid Cymru: Local by-elections


since 2012 have confirmed Plaid Cymru’s status as the second party of Welsh local government. But they are currently a long way behind Labour, and although they have had some good by-election performances in recent years, their presence and performance in local elections remains inconsistent. We should be expecting some gains overall, but again probably considerable variation in performances. Liberal Democrats: Recent months


have seen the Lib-Dems performing strongly in many local by-elections in England. There have also been a small number of good performances in Wales (and only a tiny number in Scotland). But these local recoveries by the party have not yet been reflected in improved poll ratings – which is puzzling, as the trends lines of local by-elections and


poll ratings tend to move roughly in parallel. What this probably points to in Wales in 2017 is some recovery, but again only in some places. UKIP: UKIP of course now


have a significant presence in the Assembly, while they continue to poll respectably here for both Westminster and the Assembly. Yet they remain utterly insignificant in Welsh local government; recent local by-elections have seen them often failing to stand candidates, and generally performing poorly even when they do stand. So will UKIP even manage to have many candidates? And will many – even any – of them actually win?


Roger Scully is Professor of


Political Science in the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University. This article first appeared on the Elections in Wales blog, and was reused with the author’s permission.


No relevance at all: Kim and Kanye


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