The regeneration of parts of St Helier (see page 13) for example is bound up with the issue most concerning the electorate, and that is immigration and the size of the Island's population. This is a huge challenge, and States members are right on this occasion when they say there is no simple solution, or even a complicated one for that matter. Islanders must accept that they cannot live in a fortress - even if they might want to. There has to be some immigration unless we can set up a swap shop where we swap our elderly, economically inactive citizens with young bankers and other wealth producers. As with all difficult questions, the answer will be to aim for a balance. The new policy being worked on may create that balance, but it will probably be more by luck than judgement. There will have to be controls and that will require much more care, information and research (and therefore resources) to ensure that the privilege of residence in Jersey is taken up by the people the island needs. It is no good allowing in some digital whizz kid who is going to design popular video games if we do not have enough people to look after the elderly. It is a difficult decision and will never be the right decision for everyone.
Where the current government does fall down, as has its predecessors, is the small amount of effort put into ensuring we make the most of the human capital we already have available in the Island. That covers two massively important subjects where we are not doing enough - training and productivity.
Our education system is pretty good, particularly if you only compare it with the UK, but we are falling behind other countries. We also do not do enough to encourage older workers to stay in employment, and lifelong learning is a nice phrase that has little meaning in Jersey. The bottom line for many observers is that no part of the education system should be subject to cuts or even the Council of Ministers' much-loved efficiency savings. They are often not efficient nor savings.
Little progress has also been made so far in improving Jersey's pretty dismal productivity record. The result is that Jersey needs more people to produce the same economic benefits achieved by other jurisdictions, so it is no surprise that we need to bring in more people.
The current government has tried (perhaps not hard enough) to boost productivity and encourage new businesses, but it had some
bad luck with the innovation fund, for example. It was mainly a deficiency of luck and not the major scandal that it was made out to be although there were obvious failings in the way the fund was run. But it was still better than the alternative which was no fund at all and some young companies have definitely benefitted. It will be interesting to see whether the new States will have more appetite for risk and be prepared to invest more heavily in the economy. The present government thinks that allowing a new office block or two to be built is helping the economy, and indeed it is. However, they have been reluctant to intervene at the level of making sure that there are enough entrepreneurs to fill those office blocks.
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The newly elected members will enter a States where there is now much more confidence in the tourism sector, which is the obvious area where the economy could expand. The job of turning around this important industry is by no means over, and there could be too much confidence based on too little evidence of a real revival. There is still plenty of work to be done by the new States, who may even have to spend more money to ensure the recovery of the visitor economy. One area highlighted by some respondents to our survey was the future of Fort Regent, and the next States will surely have to take this seriously and stop trying to duck the issue.
The youth of the Island will hopefully play a big part in the forthcoming election, although research elsewhere shows that many of the young are disengaged from the political process. The young are very confident about their ability to shape the future, and a recent Bertelsmann Foundation report found that 67% of European youth saw staying in the EU and working on its reform as the best option. It does not look like our youth will have that option, so they will have to make-do with helping to dismantle our links with the EU and trying to find an alternative future.
Our government has already done a lot of Brexit work, even though there is little that can be achieved until the details are clear, which should be sometime during the life of the new States. Brexit will inevitably be one of the most difficult and crucial items on the agenda for new States members, and even could end up in financial or constitutional crisis, or both. We have to hope that the new boys and girls in the States will be up to the task.
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A Ten Point Agenda for a New States
• Brexit - what happens if the UK cannot achieve a good deal for the Island?
• A floundering economy - a dangerous reliance on the finance sector remains, but can the economy become more diversified and generate more growth?
• Can the all important finance sector improve its profitability?
• How much more support does the tourism sector need to continue its revival?
• Immigration - how will we accommodate the immigration we undoubtedly need?
• Poverty may be relative, but it is still an Island disgrace. What can be done about it without breaking the bank?
• Is this the States that decides we can no longer survive without increasing taxes from their low level compared to other jurisdictions?
• How can we be more innovative without the States becoming more active in the economy?
• How can we take more control of our foreign affairs without upsetting the UK?
• With such a big agenda, how can the electoral system be reformed to make it more relevant to more voters?
20/20 - Our future
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