Insight EUROS Virtual Euro Cup 2016
Neale Deeley, Head of Gaming Division, Sportradar
“It may not surprise anyone that the top two in the betting market are the likeliest winners of the Euros, but we have the data that proves just about anyone can lift the trophy if results go their way to set up the last 16 the right way.”
Virtual Euro Cup data suggests Germany likeliest Euro champs
Portugal looks like the outsider bets according to data from Betradar’s unique EURO CUP virtual football tournament product, which has run through the tournament 480 times since May and shows Germany and France are ultimately the favourites
Despite the data showing they are poor value, I’ll still be betting with my heart when I put my money on England. Until they get knocked out, on penalties, I’ll cling to the dream and the fact that, at five per cent of virtual wins, statistically they should win every 80 years on average and they haven’t done it in the last 56 years so seems now it’s about time!”
Country
Germany France Spain
Portugal Belgium England Italy
Turkey Croatia
Switzerland Austria Wales Russia Sweden Poland
Final Final Finals Won Wins Reached
151 99 32.8% 21.5% 144 90 31.3% 19.6% 81 96 74 58 51 38
43 17.6% 9.3% 42
40 16.1% 8.7% 25 25 18
20.9% 9.1% 12.6% 5.4%
40 18 30
30 13 24 25 12 19
13 10
Czech Republic 10 Romania Slovakia Ukraine Iceland Albania
Hungary
9 5 4 2
4 1 8 1 6 1 6 1 5 0
Northern Ireland 4 0 Ireland
1 0 3 0
11.1% 5.4% 8.3% 3.9% 8.7% 3.9% 6.5% 2.8% 6.5% 2.8% 5.2% 2.2% 5.4% 2.0% 2.6% 1.1% 4.1% 0.9% 2.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 1.3% 0.2% 1.3% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0%
P28 NEWSWIRE / INTERACTIVE /
247.COM
Te Virtual EURO CUP is based on real Sportradar data, including recent player and team performances. Since a whole tournament is run through every 70 minutes, punters have been able to experience the ups and downs of following their team hundreds of times
Germany are unsurprisingly good at getting to finals but at least as far as the statistics shows, they particularly excel at lifting the cup once there. Of the 480 tournaments run so far, Germany reached the final 155 times or a 33 per cent success rate. But Germany won 99 of those, which translates into a 66 per cent success rate once in the final and a 21.5 per cent success rate overall. Tis tallies quiet neatly with the country’s best-priced 9/2 odds.
Te data also seems to support the case for favouring France, albeit not quite to the same degree. Te hosts reached the final in 144 instances over the period and won just under two-thirds of their appearances giving them an overall success rate of 19.6 per cent. In betting terms they are therefore slightly shorter than the data might be said to justify at best-priced 16/5.
BEATING THE ODDS In total, 20 out of the 24 countries taking part in Euro
2016 have won the tournament from the 480 versions of it that have played through. Among the unlikely winners are Iceland and Slovakia, which each ran out the winners in one running of the virtual tournaments.
Among those that appear to be too short according to the data are England, which ran out as winners 25 times out of 480 at a win ratio of just over five per cent. Tis would translate into odds of roughly 20/1 compared to the odds offered for Roy Hodgson’s team: a best-priced 9/1. But England are not alone in being over-priced: Spain won the Virtual Euro Cup 43 times out of the 480 tournaments i.e. just over one in 10 compared to their best-priced odds of 11/2.
Neale Deeley, Managing Director of Virtual Sports at
Betradar, said: “Te results show just how real our Virtuals product is when it comes to predicting game and tournament outcomes.”
He added: “It may not surprise anyone that the top two in the betting market are the likeliest winners of the Euros, but we have the data that proves just about anyone can lift the trophy if results go their way to set up the last 16 the right way.”
“It adds an extra layer of verisimilitude that we can also see where patriotism (in the case of England) and reputation (in the case of Spain) would appear to be influencing betting prices rather than actual data.”
BETTING ON NUMBER (CR) 7 In contrast to England and Spain, the data points to
some under-priced teams, in particular Portugal, which in the Virtual Euro Cup won out 42 times, just behind Spain, but is best-priced at 22/1 by the bookies.
For those that think that after Leicester City’s success in the English Premier League that this is the year of the underdog, they might want to take a look at Turkey. According to the Sportradar data, they won the virtual tournament 18 times or just under four per cent of the time, which would equate to odds of circa 25/1 but the team is widely available at 80/1 to win the real thing.
Tose looking for an upset might also want to look at the odds on big tournament debutants Wales, which won the Virtual Euro Cup 10 times so far (or 2.2 per cent success rate) yet also has odds widely available at 80/1. Said Deeley: “Despite the data showing they are poor value, I’ll still be betting with my heart when I put my money on England. Until they get knocked out, probably on penalties, I’ll cling to the dream and the fact that, at five per cent of virtual wins, statistically they should win every 80 years on average and they haven’t done it in the last 56 years so seems now it’s about time!”
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