340 E. Mizsei et al.


TABLE 1 Areas of high-priority landscapes predicted by spatial prioritization under two climate scenarios (A1B, B2) until 2080 for the con- servation of Vipera graeca and that are covered by various categories of the current network of protected areas.


Protected area type description National park (IUCN type II)


Habitat/Species management area (IUCN type IV)


Protected area with sustainable use of natural resources (IUCN type VI) Site of community importance (EU Natura 2000 Habitats Directive site) Special protection area (EU Natura 2000 Birds Directive site)


in protected areas in Albania and all high priority areaswere in protected areas in Greece (Fig. 4). Under the B1 scenario the total protected high priority area was 221.2 km2 or 83.5% of all high priority areas, all of which were in Greece (Fig. 4, Table 1).


Interrelationships of conservation value variables Cluster analysis revealed four clusters of conservation value vari- ables (Fig. 5). Habitat alteration was mostly independent of other variables. Vegetation suitability was clustered with disturbance and habitat degradation, and climate suitability was related to habitat size. Population persistencewas close- ly related to the opportunity of altitudinal shift (r = 0.64, r = 0.73 for A1B and B1, respectively). No site had maximum conservation value for all variables.


Discussion


Our study provides four main results. Firstly, the modelling of future climatic conditions showed a significant 81–90% reduction in the area of habitats suitable for V. graeca by the end of the 2080s. Secondly, current protection appears adequate for the persistence of the species in Greece but not in Albania. Thirdly, conservation efforts are most likely to


Protected area coverage (ha) A1B


1,959.5 4,133.2 35,471.8 16,881.4 22,381.3


B2


2,039.9 3,154.7 31,356.4 13,359.7 20,809.5


succeed if they target habitat alteration, degradation and dis- turbance as these have similar effects and the other threats are not easy to address at local scales (Fig. 5). Fourthly, our approach shows that threats can be mapped and used to estimate the conservation value of areas, which can then be used in spatial conservation prioritization for single species.


Expected impact of climate change


Our analyses support the previous results of Mizsei et al. (2016) showing that the distribution of V. graeca is limited to the coldest and highest elevation habitats in the Southern Balkans. However, based on future climate scenarios, there will not be any remaining suitable habitats (i.e. with mean annual temperature ,10 °C ) in the Southern Balkans by 2100 within the current range of the species (Lelieveld et al., 2012). Thus, the probability of the extinction of V. graeca is high, as unassisted long-distance dispersal to other high elevation mountains that may be suitable in the future is not possible. Besides increases in temperature, substantial aridification is expected throughout the Mediter- ranean basin (Foufopoulos & Ives, 1999). Precipitation quan- tity and frequency are predicted to decrease and the number of dry days is predicted to increase considerably by 2100 (Lelieveld et al., 2012; Mariotti et al., 2015). For ectotherms,


FIG. 5 Agglomerative hierarchical clustering of conservation value layers and illustrations of the habitat of V. graeca and the most important threats. Conservation management actions should be targeted at the points of interventions. Note that the binary habitat occupancy variable is not included.


Oryx, 2021, 55(3), 334–343 © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605319000322


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