TABLE 4 Model outputs from regression models of the relationship between trade (legal and seizures) and year for the taxonomic groups included in the study between 1980–2013. Legal


Seizures


Taxonomic group


Invertebrates Arachnids


Trend Relationship1 R2 Increase Linear


Clams, snails Decrease Quadratic Corals Insects Leeches Sea


Increase Quadratic Increase Linear Increase Linear


Increase Quadratic cucumbers


Vertebrates Amphibians Decrease Linear Bears Birds Felids


Cetaceans


Crocodiles, alligators, caimans


Elephants Fish


Lizards, iguanas, Other


chameleons mammals


Primates Rhinos


Sea turtles, tortoises


Snakes Plants


Total trade


Increase Linear Decrease Linear


Decrease Linear


Increase Quadratic Decrease Linear


Increase Linear Increase Quadratic


0.498 0.001


0.051 0.515


0.209 0.413 0.372


7,788.40 –1,054.86


–66.09 345.89


–119,603.00 624,504.00 301,654.00


,0.0001 Increase 0.823 Increase


0.196 Decrease


–74.89 Concave ,0.0001 Increase/ no change


–61,803.60 Concave


0.0065 Increase ,0.0001 Increase 0.0007 Increase


Linear Linear


Linear Linear


Linear Linear Linear


0.267 0.062


0.266 3.42 × 10–3


0.005 0.036 0.015


759.33 0.0017 60.47 0.155


–1,816.23 0.0018 1.78 0.973


38.69 0.682


2,906.77 0.278 2,091.35 0.482


1Whether the model is linear or quadratic. Slope describes the parameter estimates of the linear term, and slope2 describes the parameter estimate of the quadratic term (where this was included in the model).


Increase Linear Decrease Linear Decrease Linear Increase Linear Increase Linear


Decrease Linear Increase Linear Decrease Linear


9.28 × 10−5 0.045 0.077 0.237


0.119 0.282


0.264 0.074 0.458


−31,272.60 799.56


–473.16 –164.85 45.49


22,255.90


–99,115.40 4,894.26


128,261.00


0.503 0.303 0.309 0.249 0.539 0.212


Slope 3,010.24


−3,869.10 −1,188.88 Convex 18,112.30 −4,191.54 Concave


242.07


3,388.73 146.54


20.35 Convex Slope2 Curve P Trend


,0.0001 Increase 0.0036 Increase 0.0032 Increase 0.002 Decrease ,0.0001 Increase


0.024 Increase/ no change


0.045 Increase 0.0012 Increase 0.956 Decrease 0.226 Decrease 0.111 Increase 0.0035 Increase


0.0018 Decrease 0.117 Increase ,0.0001 Decrease


Relationship R2


Linear Linear Linear Linear Linear Linear


Linear Linear Linear Linear Linear Linear


Linear Linear Linear


0.045 0.129 0.005 0.036 0.071 0.099


0.008 0.281 0.002 0.125 0.204 0.136


0.175 0.024 0.006


Slope P


12.98 0.225 499.72 0.036 117.61 0.666


−13.35 0.277 12.64 0.126


3.85 0.069 5.63 0.594


111.31 0.0012 –14.27 0.799 –837.42 0.039 14.34 0.0073 174.31 0.031


–114.48 0.013 533.80 0.380 –366.43 0.641


438 M. Bager Olsen et al.


Oryx, 2021, 55(3), 432–441 © The Author(s), 2019. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605319000541


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