UP FRONT 01
EDITOR’S LETTER
Is it me or is summer getting shorter? It seems only a couple of weeks since we were signing off our June expenses claims and here we are already booking flights and hotels for the next round of exhibitions and conferences. And there are plenty to attend – this issue has news of
two major shows for the tank storage equipment sector, while we are also very busy getting prepared for EPCA’s 50th anniversary bash in Budapest at the start of October. In our experience, getting out to meet the market is an easy way to get an injection of optimism. That may sometimes be misplaced – we are always aware that some of the people we turn to are putting a brave face on things (no one wants the press to know they are hurting) – but many equipment and service providers are currently doing very nicely, thank you. There are, though, some worrying signs in the market.
Operators and vendors exposed to the upstream end of the business are being challenged by the continuing weakness (and volatility) in the prices of oil, gas and commodity chemicals. And the hope offered by industrial development and growing personal wealth in China is faltering, with a slowdown in economic and trade growth. There are other uncertainties creeping in, too. The return
of Iran to the international fold has a massive potential to impact the oil and gas markets, which will likely put further downward pressure on prices but also provide additional vessel employment. The effect of the opening of the expanded Panama Canal is also fraught with uncertainty: international trade could benefit by shortening voyage
times, particularly between the east coast of North America and China and the rest of Asia, but will that merely lead to greater overcapacity in the container shipping sector? Or will cost savings help bolster consumer demand and open up arbitrage opportunities in the commodities markets? Then there is this year’s US presidential election, which at the time of going to press seems to offer two very divergent options for the country’s relationship with the rest of the world. On the upside, as is normal in election year, hazmat enterprises in the US may be spared too many rule changes ahead of November as the passage of new regulation through the system slows up. (Although we hope PHMSA can get its international harmonisation rule out in time.) These issues may seem a long way from the front line of
everyday business for many readers, but their influence is being felt at the very point of service delivery. Uncertainty abounds and with it comes a reluctance to make firm decisions – it is hard to commit to long-term spending when market conditions just a few years ahead are difficult to gauge. In another life, many years ago, I worked for a consultancy firm; one of its directors prefaced his presentations to clients with a candid statement to the effect that the forecast he was about to give was already wrong, as events had moved on since he (or, rather, I) had done the research. In today’s environment that seems to apply even more widely than ever before. Anyway, I have to dash – the footie season is back and Match of the Day is on the telly.
Peter Mackay
WWW.HCBLIVE.COM
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