news digest ♦ compound semiconductor
more than 45M devices:
Stand-alone projectors: Yole Développement forecasts this market to really take-off by 2010 with a sales volume in between 0.5 to 1 M units. During this first phase, most of it will be LED-based but the company forecasts 10-20% will be laser-based by 2011 and that ratio will grow to 50-75% by 2016.
Yolealso envisions a natural move from stand-alone to embedded device as the technology will little-by-little be compatible with size and cost constraints.
Cell-Phone: that market will start late 2010 with high-end devices (Samsung “Android”,…). Laser-based systems will be slowly implemented along with cost reduction but Yole Déve-loppement stays very conservative saying that LED will strongly dominate at least until 2016. According to the small size requirement, direct-emission green laser will be highly recommended.
Media Players: that device is the perfect location for embedded pico-projectors. Its ultimate function is to diffuse and share media. There are less cost constraints and size issues com-pared to cell-phone. The boom should occur by 2012 with 2.6 to 5 M units equipped with projection functionality. SHG green lasers should dominate first waiting for direct-emission to be price and performance-compatible.
Camera and camcorder: “There, we forecast a slow market penetration for laser-based technologies as the battery life-time and cost can become critical parameters. LED technol-ogy should dominate in these applications” says Regis Hamelin, Yole Développement’s Mar-ket & Technology Analyst.
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www.compoundsemiconductor.net April/May 2010
Laptop: that is probably the most unclear segment as it is hard to accurately predict about the behavior of consumers: will they go for an all-in-one solution (PC plus projector) with an embedded projection device that will probably be less efficient than desktop projectors? Yole Développement remains very conservative on that application.
Only SHG laser diodes are available today on the market place. “Corning, OSRAM and QD Laser hav-ing each their proprietary solution to green light generation. However, given the complex package of these lasers, it seems difficult to reach a reasonable target price. Moreover, these components seem to suffer from a shortage situation”, explains Philippe Roussel, Project Manager at Yole Développe- ment.
Sumitomo SEI, KAAI (UCSB) and OSRAM are the most advanced players for direct-emission green la-ser diodes. If performance meets the minimum requirements for optical power, wall-plug efficiency and lifetime, some of them could possibly offer products in limited quantities as soon as the middle of 2011.
The battle for direct-emission green source will also take place at substrate side where non-polar and semi-polar GaN crystal can play a very positive role in green wavelength emission.
The Light-Engine Module, combination of light source and image management (LCD, micro-mirrors, LCOS…) is expected at a target price of $40, this implies a price target of $10 per color, red will not be a problem, however, GaN blue lasers have not reached that price target yet despite their maturi-ty. Green laser will also have to stay in the $10 range to penetrate the market.
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