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INTO THE FUTURE


PREDICTIONS PENDING Stuff that was forecast to happen during


the first 100 issues of BBT but hasn’t yet


NEW DISTRIBUTION CAPABILITY When I started writing about NDC I was still running around in short trousers, a thick mane of brown hair cascading about my shoulders. Well, not quite, but seven years on and book- ings via this technology remain little more than a trickle. Surely NDC will take hold before we hit issue 200? That’s a 200-month window of opportunity that takes us into 2036.


Amon’s Crystal Balls:


TRAVELLER WELLBEING Talking about looking after traveller health is in vogue but I still don’t sense companies getting serious about tackling it. However, if businesses become more prudent about how much they travel, that should ease the strain on road warriors anyway.


Amon’s Crystal Balls:


SURELY NDC WILL TAKE HOLD BEFORE WE HIT ISSUE 200? THAT’S A 200-MONTH WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY


One reason travel managers will be able to spend more time on micro-service architecture is that they will need less time for sourcing. Flights and hotels are increasingly bought for the best price available and preferred supplier relationships are diminishing in importance. It’s a trend that could be accelerated by New Distribution Capability and artificial intelligence, both of which will help set prices presented to bookers on a case-by-case basis.


Amon’s Crystal Balls:


THE BUSINESS TRAVEL INDUSTRY WILL BECOME LESS ‘ATLANTO-CENTRIC’ Over the past 100 issues, the really big business travel suppliers and service providers have been overwhelm- ingly North American or Western European. The only major exceptions I can think of are the three giant Gulf carriers and Turkish Airlines. I reckon that will change by issue 200. China is the obvious candidate: perhaps ex- isting players, such as Ctrip or Alipay, will become global players, or names that don’t exist yet. India also has many smart travel technologists who could make a splash.


Amon’s Crystal Balls: 108 SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2019


STRATEGIC MEETINGS MANAGEMENT Much proposed, rarely seen outside the pharma industry. I’m no longer convinced meetings will ever be controlled as tightly as transient travel.


Amon’s Crystal Balls:


DEATH OF THE GDS Though handling a smaller proportion of air bookings than when BBT started, GDS providers have found many other services to perform and are set to become part of the NDC transformation rather than casualties of it. But might their lunch yet be eaten by giant tech outsiders, such as Google?


Amon’s Crystal Balls:


DEATH OF THE TMC From commission cuts to online travel agencies to the new booking tool/travel man- agement “platforms”, TMCs have consistently proved resilient in the face of threats, and expert at reinvention. They’ll be around as long as business travel is.


Amon’s Crystal Balls:


ABOLITION OF AIR PASSENGER DUTY With a climate emergency declared, this lengthy lobbying campaign is dead in the water. In fact, aviation now looks under-taxed.


Amon’s Crystal Balls: buyingbusinesstravel.com


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