174 TECHNOLOGY / ANNUAL LED ROUND UP
mean more installations, which means more people actually experience LED lighting, which drives adoption of LED lighting.”
Keith T S Ward, President & CEO, Luminus Devices, Inc., states: “I believe that in 2013, LED companies will continue to advance towards global consoli- dation, where the big get bigger and a few of the smaller firms get absorbed. Forward integration by the super large LED compa- nies will continue to take new forms. I forsee a continued focus on providing the innovation of new intelligence to the light- ing system for ‘value adds’ and enhanced margins farther down the value chain. Fixtures will start to change in size and move towards more miniaturisation. Asia will continue to grow as the manufacturing centre for LED fabrication, with Europe and the US holding on to single players who will begin to fragment their country of origin production structures. Unit volume growth will continue to be offset with aggressive price erosion holding the revenue growth to near single digits or so. Capacity will outstrip demand as LED manufacturing is ahead of demand and a year of growth will not fully absorb the difference. The bifurcation of chip size in lighting applications will continue, LED penetration continues in general lighting and further adaption in numerous new illu- mination applications but still dramatically below a 50% rate of penetration. LED lighting markets will continue to move to adapting to using more LED platforms that displace traditional lighting products and technologies... the speed of penetra- tion will be slower than many expect due to the industry fragmentation and relative slow growth of global construction. Retrofit applications using LEDs will also continue to penetrate as construction softness will drive ESCOs and contractors to search for work. Emerging markets will skip over tra- ditional lighting applications and products and move directly toward LED products. Global construction and manufacturing mar- kets will continue to be slightly depressed globally as a continuation of the macro-eco- nomic environment we are seeing globally. Efficacy and LPW will continue to advance as well as high CRI utilisation in more and more applications. Integrated systems will also get more attention as businesses look to differentiation to drive revenue growth and margin expansion.”
The team at Verbatim believe: “As far as 2013 is concerned, one thing is certain: LED devices are set to become increasingly energy efficient and available
Figure 26: GE’s Infusion Narrow Punch Modular (NPM) system.
in higher lux intensities. Beyond this, LEDs are set to become increasingly smart with more indoor lighting products controlled by smartphones. We also expect the level of consumer understanding about LED technologies to steadily improve, given many countries have banned or are planning to prohibit the manufacture of old-fashioned lightbulbs. Unfortunately, customer disappointment with inferior LED products from lesser- known brands or unbranded budget LED lamps may also rise next year and this could taint the reputation of the overall industry. Consumers on a budget in these austere times could choose ultra low cost LED lamps over more costly established brands but these products compromise on the quality of materials and components used. You get what you pay for.”
Conclusions 2012 has been a solid year in performance gains for LEDs and LED fixtures and OLEDs has shown a stunning comeback showing that it would be unwise to write the tech- nology off completely. Nearly every significant LED manufacturer has endorsed the fact that LED arrays offer the best solution for general LED lighting applications with the launch of arrays in a variety of formats from 10 to 100W. These LED arrays offer significant lumen outputs and high efficiency whilst enabling excel- lent optical performance from small light emitting areas. A range of new and exciting LED technology advancements have been made during the year including new substrate materials such as Gallium and Silicon that offer significant performance gains and/or price reduc- tion possibilities in 2013. Toshiba showed a glimpse of a possible lighting future using blue lasers remotely to enable high lumi- nous power densities. Of course LED and LED fixture performance increased significantly yet again during 2012 and we can expect to see an improvement in lumens of between 15 to 25% during 2013 to enable LEDs to surpass all types of
Figure 27: Sharp’s Tiger colour tuneable LED array.
artificial lighting. In 2012, LED light bulb replacements finally found their way on to consumer’s shelves although their prices are still prohibitive.
What may happen in 2013... I certainly believe the commercial avail- ability of 180lm/W LED emitters will be available by the end of 2013 which will en- able LED fixture manufacturers to begin the replacement of T5 luminaires as the return on investment payback drops accordingly. Advanced, low cost colour tuneable LED products will become widely available dur- ing 2012 that offer end users the ability to set colour temperatures dynamically and meet 2 standard MacAdam ellipses. The vCCT products will be available in several formats, including two, three and five chan- nel based systems, causing standardisation bodies a new set of headaches. The relentless cost down of LED fixtures will increase poor reliability issues across the whole industry and a second phase of disil- lusionment will begin for a couple of years as LED fixtures fail in application. Colour metrics and LED flicker effects will begin to be highlighted as an issue by designers as they find LEDs need to be measured more accurately and CRI is not appropriate. Finally, LED lighting will become signifi- cantly more intelligent and leaders in the market will start to integrate control technology at little or no extra costs into luminaires thus accelerating the energy ef- ficiency savings possible.
Have a great festive season and a Happy New Year which is going to be full of light- ing innovations!
g.archenhold@
mondiale.co.uk
Dr. Geoff Archenhold is an active investor in LED driver and fixture manufacturers and a lighting energy consultant.
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