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NB: All future auction dates were correct at time of going to print but are subject to change; please check auction-house website
Covid pandemic (Q1 2020). The marked drop in engagement during the fourth quarter of 2022 is likely temporary and linked to pleasure-spend fatigue in a tough year for financial markets. Some financial indices have shown early signs of recovery at the start of 2023, and while it’s possible that a global recession may lengthen the muted interest from collectors, all historical signs point to another upward cycle, sooner or later. Anecdotally, the downward trend in bids also correlates to lower hammer earnings on average—auction prices toward the end of 2022 were landing somewhere between low and high estimates, whereas 12 months prior
Buyers’ premiums (pre-VAT) Auction house
Acker Merrall & Condit
Percentage 24.0%
Artcurial 19.0% Baghera 22.0% Besch 20.0% Bonhams Hong Kong / US Bonhams UK
Christie’s Europe
Christie’s Hong Kong / US Hart Davis Hart
they were beating high estimates consistently. The average price of disclosed top lots in 2022 reached $68,391, which is $43,886 (39 percent) less than the same figure in 2021.
24.0% 22.0% 22.5% 25.0% 19.5%
Heritage 22.0% J Straker Chadwick & Sons
18.0%
Skinner 25.0% Sotheby’s Hong Kong / New York 24.0% Sotheby’s London
21.0%
Steinfels 12.0% Tajan 20.0% Zachys
24.5% 48 | THE WORLD OF FINE WINE | ISSUE 79 | 2023
If the place is right Certain top lots throughout 2022 provide a happy counterargument, indicating that the right wines presented in the right context can still break records despite wider macroeconomic uncertainty. The highest top lot of 2022 is an exception to ongoing trends but a regional first: Sotheby’s single-collector New York auction “The Glass Cellar” earned $525,000 for a 29-vintage vertical of Harlan Estate. The next three highest hammer prices come from the same producer and plot: Henri Jayer’s Vosne-Romanée Cros Parantoux achieved $493,883, $414,225, and $415,477 for lots of the 1991, 1996, and 1993 vintages respectively last year. The 1996, auctioned by Sotheby’s in Hong Kong during June of last year, more than twice exceeded its auction estimate. The other two lots, auctioned by Christie’s, were both from the cellar of Joseph Lau, also selling well over their respective high-estimate prices, also auctioned in Hong Kong. In fact, of top lots achieved in 2022, no other geographical location gets a look in on the 20 highest hammer prices. Equally noticeable is the gradual
decrease of Domaine de la Romanée- Conti from hammer-price top spots. While Burgundy’s domination at auction remains unquestioned, the 20 highest prices achieved in 2022 include ten lots of DRC, compared with 14 the previous year (and 13 the year before that). Have prices for the number-one Burgundy baron finally peaked? It’s certainly possible, given how frequently the wines have been traded over the past few years amid a vinous stimulation high, whereas the likes of Cros Parantoux crop up less often and therefore ultimately attract more attention on the rare occasions they arise. Further proof of this phenomenon comes in the form of the 162nd Hospices de Beaune auction, run by Sotheby’s in November, achieving a sale total of $32 million and setting a new record for the Pièce des Présidents (€810,000).
Hunkering down While China’s return to the wine market may provide a lifejacket to the trade in 2023, my instinct is that the industry will still be rowing against the current—at least compared to the river rapids we’ve had the pleasure of riding in recent years. If the era of free credit and overspending is coming to an end, merchants and auction houses can expect to throw more mud at the wall and see less of it stick, as many collectors will be understandably distracted by the need to protect their wealth from a shrinking economy. On the flipside of this, any sales with ultra-rare wines and exceptional curation may stand out more than ever, gaining proportionally more traction with a selective audience.
And while there may be turbulence ahead, wine investors should take confidence in fine-wine’s luxury model, molded primarily by the supply-and- demand equation. Ultimately, fine-wine prices maintain a track record of only ever going up eventually—it is simply a question of time. Even if supply increases this year, by virtue of saturated cellars seeking a spring clean, or certain buyers bowing out of the game temporarily, all the resales in the world could not satisfy the eager new entrants to the wine market. In the meantime, the wine-inclined can take comfort in sheltering from the rain with some exceptional bottles while they await the return of blue skies and sunshine.
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