Still, fine wine’s standard industry


measures for market health rose an average 5 percent between January and December 2022, while financial indices tumbled (fig. 1). Liv-ex’s Bordeaux First Growth index, the Liv-ex 50 was last year’s slowest performer. Following a 13 percent climb throughout the previous year (a record performance since the last Bordeaux boom in 2016), the index maintained its upward trajectory in the first three quarters of 2022. Experiencing a minor dip in the summer, it then fell 6 percent between September and December, landing at a net annual gain of 2 percent. The Liv-ex 100 dipped earlier and more severely than its narrower cousin but regained ground quickly, stabilizing into a final 12-month increase of 5 percent (compared with 22 percent in 2021). Liv-ex’s widest measure, the Liv-ex 1000, showed better peaks and more stable troughs over the two-year period. Despite flattening toward the end of 2022, it finished the year with overall growth of 9 percent (half shy of its 18 percent rise in 2021). The downward turn of all three indices as 2022 ended surely forecasts some bad weather for 2023; the real questions are where this will hit and perhaps for how long.


Bubbling up (and over?) Regionally speaking, recent performance of Liv-ex’s regional indices suggests the greatest risk could be reserved for those regions with the furthest to fall. The Champagne 50 index climbed a gargantuan 74 percent between January 2021 and November 2022, before a sharp month-on-month fall. It finished 2022 with 12 percent growth for the year (compared with 40 percent in 2021; fig. 2). The pace of the two-year price sprint from Champagne nonetheless makes Burgundy’s first peak of 2016 look like a Sunday afternoon stroll, achieving the same gains in 24 months that Burgundy saw in 32. On the one hand, this could indicate that Champagne is set for a harder fall in 2023. On the other—and if we’re to take Burgundy’s longer-term performance as any indicator (fig. 3)—it could mean that Champagne’s ascent is just beginning. Indeed, Burgundy’s so-called bubble has never burst and shows no signs of doing so. The regional index was 2022’s best performer (rising 19 percent


1


140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95


Liv-ex wine prices v S&P since January 2021


Liv-ex 1000


Liv-ex 50


Liv-ex 100


2 Liv-ex regional indices since January 2021 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90


S&P 500


Source: Liv-ex


Bordeaux 500 Italy 100


Bordeaux Legends 50 Rest of the World 50


Burgundy 150 Champagne 50


Rhône 100 Source: Liv-ex 3 Liv-ex Burgundy 150 since January 2016


320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 110 100


Source: Liv-ex


THE WORLD OF FINE WINE | ISSUE 79 | 2023 | 41


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